Here is a chart produced on Aug 8 (Source: PTIONFLYS) showing
previous bear flag patterns that set bottoms and broke to the
upside in reference to Digi's comments below.
Upon further analysis the previous bear flags seemed to complete
(roughly speaking) in 9 trading days which would be next Thursday.
Lastly, you can see a view of the recent advancing and
corrective cycles to consider (note there are other cycles that
differ including a shorter term high to high cycle posted below
from CyclesFan).
Conclusion: Only time will tell, it remains to be seen how
things unfold in the coming days. So far the decline on the
SPX is best counted as three waves down (corrective) but does it
morph into a expanding diagonal with Wave 4 currently unfolding
that would overlap Wave 1 and then reverse back down sharply?
That would be the bearish view as a part of a larger zig zag
correction whereas the bullish view would be that following the LD
and pullback the market is now in the early stages of a larger
impulse back to the upside. I will review this weekend in the
newsletter but wanted to share a few thoughts after my work the
previous few days. There are always alternatives and nothing
is absolute in the market. EW provides some guidance via
certain rules but forecasting is always subject to changes.
Avoid prognosticators and focus on your process and then make
evidenced based adjustments, that's why effective systems
work as they take an evidenced based approach and adjust along the
way. The market typically makes decisive moves based upon
stronger catalysts and we have the upcoming CPI next week then
Jackson Hole Aug 22/24 and NVDA on Aug 28th as noteworthy events on
the horizon.
"If everybody's waiting for a bounce to sell, either the market
doesn't bounce or, if it does, you shouldn't sell into it."
-- Bob Farrell
Previous Bear Flag Patterns and Resulting Moves
KISS systems - looks like a lot of the indexes went back long, SPY, QQQ etc
Posted by steve on 10th of Aug 2024 at 11:55 am
Here is a chart produced on Aug 8 (Source: PTIONFLYS) showing previous bear flag patterns that set bottoms and broke to the upside in reference to Digi's comments below.
Upon further analysis the previous bear flags seemed to complete (roughly speaking) in 9 trading days which would be next Thursday.
Lastly, you can see a view of the recent advancing and corrective cycles to consider (note there are other cycles that differ including a shorter term high to high cycle posted below from CyclesFan).
Conclusion: Only time will tell, it remains to be seen how things unfold in the coming days. So far the decline on the SPX is best counted as three waves down (corrective) but does it morph into a expanding diagonal with Wave 4 currently unfolding that would overlap Wave 1 and then reverse back down sharply? That would be the bearish view as a part of a larger zig zag correction whereas the bullish view would be that following the LD and pullback the market is now in the early stages of a larger impulse back to the upside. I will review this weekend in the newsletter but wanted to share a few thoughts after my work the previous few days. There are always alternatives and nothing is absolute in the market. EW provides some guidance via certain rules but forecasting is always subject to changes. Avoid prognosticators and focus on your process and then make evidenced based adjustments, that's why effective systems work as they take an evidenced based approach and adjust along the way. The market typically makes decisive moves based upon stronger catalysts and we have the upcoming CPI next week then Jackson Hole Aug 22/24 and NVDA on Aug 28th as noteworthy events on the horizon.
"If everybody's waiting for a bounce to sell, either the market doesn't bounce or, if it does, you shouldn't sell into it." -- Bob Farrell
You missed the biggest bear
Posted by DigiNomad on 10th of Aug 2024 at 10:47 pm
You missed the biggest bear flag of them all - maybe in history. Right in Z middle.