Tough one! The 10 year is unnaturally low due mostly to manipulation (depending on who's analysis you believe). A bet on higher is a bet on either strong economic growth and inflation driving it higher or manipulation failing to continue to work or being pulled back somewhat which would allow it to climb naturally.  Considering the hand grenades in our economy have pins essentially tied to the 10 year, I think a lot of stops will be pulled out to keep it lower.