Really anything with pricing power, but hard assets tend to do well (I'd be very careful with real estate even though it's considered to be an inflation hedge). I don't know how they plan to directly monetize AI except by using it to reduce head count, but the picks and shovels of AI...mostly NVDA have pricing power because there largest customer is the Fed Gov. Same with GOOG, MSFT, DELL, etc. If your largest customer can and will pay any price for what you're selling, you're probably good.

    Basically keep buying what has worked and don't get talked into the stuff around the edges and a "broadening" thesis. We're not going to broaden over the medium term...quite the opposite, IMO.  As price pressures increase and only the people who have fed gov as largest customer retain bulletproof pricing power, the rest will be buying chips from NVDA in panic mode in a race to maintain margins via one of the only levers they have....reduced headcount.

    Think about it: are you going to pay NFLX more because they made a better suggestion about what movie you might like or their animation seems more seamless all of the sudden? No, but they will be able to do a lot of those improvements with a LOT less people going forward. Will completely new things be born as a result of the AI explosion? I'm sure, but in the meantime, there's a battle for all these companies to maintain margins...and there's a clear path to use AI to reduce headcount so that's what will happen.

    I created a trust for a client today with AI and he literally fired his attorney this afternoon because he's been waiting 3 weeks for it (I was finally like  dude, I'm not an attorney, but here you go, courtesy of GPT-4o). This is simply the way things are going. Bottom line: chase whatever assets gov printed money is chasing if you're going to be in equities. On the hard asset side, those tend to just be a mirror of dilution over time...if they're going through through the roof like now, you can be pretty sure the opposite is happening with the value of the currency (underlying value of commodities doesn't change as a group in the short to medium term...but the value of the currency used to purchase them does change)

    Thanks for your elaboration, Digi. 

    Posted by mdgfain on 21st of May 2024 at 08:32 am

    Thanks for your elaboration, Digi. 

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