Posted by allamarina1 on 9th of May 2024 at 04:48 pm
May 08,
2024
This morning, the Swedish central bank became the second major
central bank (a G10 country) to cut rates.
The Swiss National Bank was the first to kick off the easing
cycle in March.
And as we discussed yesterday, rate cuts are expected to come
in Junefor both the Bank of England and the
European Central Bank.
Keep in mind, the
Fed has tighter policy, measured by the real
interest rate (the main policy interest rate minus the inflation
rate),
than any of these four central banks. They
should be cutting.
So, despite the mixed signals the Fed gives, we should expect
more and sooner action from the Fed than the market has priced in.
We should expect the
closely coordinated policiesof the past
fifteen years, by major central banks,
to continuein this easing cycle.
Remember, the Bank of Japan played the critical role of
global liquidity providerthe past two years (the
liquidity offset to the Western world's liquidity
extraction/tightening policies).
They made the first step toward
exiting that roleon March 19th.
And probably no coincidence,
two days laterthe Swiss National Bank started the
easing cycle with
a surprise rate cut (adding liquidity).
With that in mind, the Fed has convinced markets that they can
patiently sit with high real rates, until they manufacture their
desired inflation rate. The actions of their central bank
counterparts tell a different story. They don't have the
luxury. They are all a liquidity crunch away from returning
to the business of QE.
Posted by DigiNomad on 9th of May 2024 at 04:51 pm
There's no way we don't return to QE. The only way is spending
cuts and that might as well be like saying if we had a colony on
Mars....it's not going to happen without a crisis to force
it.
May 08, 2024 This morning, the Swedish
Posted by allamarina1 on 9th of May 2024 at 04:48 pm
May 08, 2024
This morning, the Swedish central bank became the second major central bank (a G10 country) to cut rates.
The Swiss National Bank was the first to kick off the easing cycle in March.
And as we discussed yesterday, rate cuts are expected to come in Junefor both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Keep in mind, the Fed has tighter policy, measured by the real interest rate (the main policy interest rate minus the inflation rate), than any of these four central banks. They should be cutting.
So, despite the mixed signals the Fed gives, we should expect more and sooner action from the Fed than the market has priced in. We should expect the closely coordinated policiesof the past fifteen years, by major central banks, to continuein this easing cycle.
Remember, the Bank of Japan played the critical role of global liquidity providerthe past two years (the liquidity offset to the Western world's liquidity extraction/tightening policies).
They made the first step toward exiting that roleon March 19th.
And probably no coincidence, two days laterthe Swiss National Bank started the easing cycle with a surprise rate cut (adding liquidity).
With that in mind, the Fed has convinced markets that they can patiently sit with high real rates, until they manufacture their desired inflation rate. The actions of their central bank counterparts tell a different story. They don't have the luxury. They are all a liquidity crunch away from returning to the business of QE.
Well said.
Posted by kab34 on 9th of May 2024 at 06:46 pm
Well said.
There's no way we don't
Posted by DigiNomad on 9th of May 2024 at 04:51 pm
There's no way we don't return to QE. The only way is spending cuts and that might as well be like saying if we had a colony on Mars....it's not going to happen without a crisis to force it.
We already have QE we
Posted by DigiNomad on 9th of May 2024 at 04:52 pm
We already have QE we just call it "not QE" because QE has negative political consequences. What do you call massive treasury buybacks if not QE?