Last week, I posted here the major trigger for the market
advance was due to the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA).
For those unaware, the QRA is when the Treasury tells the
markets how much issuance there will be and where it will take
place along the curve (bills, notes, bonds). As I have
preached over the past several months, the QRA has become a focal
point of traders due to the concerns developing in the longer
duration (notes and bonds) due to a supply/demand imbalance from
the massive amount of debt (leading to large issuance). The last
QRA in July surprised the markets when Yellen announced that they
would be
growing issuance at the long end of the
curve which is primarily funded via bank reserves which
serves to reduce liquidity (funds allocated to purchase debt versus
risk assets). Then on Wednesday, many traders were expecting
Yellen to continue that trend of increased supply and longer dated
issuance (many were positioned short SPX/TLT). Instead, the
QRA showed a slowing of debt issuance along with more
issuance dedicated to the shorter end of the curve (which is
primarily funded via the RRP not Bank Reserves). This led
liquidity traders to reverse their positions on Wednesday
pre-market. Thus, Yellen provided the trigger (kicked the can
so to say) with additional fuel coming from those liquidity traders
reversing (buying risk assets) which creates a shift in structure
(technical buy) which then forces the CTAs to reduce shorts/buy and
the start of retail FOMO (see the chain reaction leading to a
Breadth Thrust). To summarize, the QRA ignited a rally in
bonds (lower yields) which in turn leads traders to risk on (buy/
increase allocations of junk bonds, stocks, gold, all risk
assets). This is simply all about positioning/flows which is
also influenced further by money managers need to press returns for
year end bonuses (greed is always in play on Wall Street). Remember
my comments last weekend/ Monday about the fuel being present
(sentiment, divergences, positioning) but a trigger was required.
Janet provided the trigger (ignited the rally) but kicking
the can will not solve the problem longer term. Remember the
Fram Oil commercial?
Ironically, these actions (easing Financial conditions) make the
Feds job that much tougher as longer term yields drop back down
(see chart below showing Financial conditions). The is thus
pressured to keep the Fed Funds rate higher for longer because of
the easing financial conditions.
Chart Source: Market Ear
Below is one article summarizing the importance of the QRA and
it's impacts on markets. Click on the QRA link directly
below and read for further clarity.
Update: This is true for foreign markets as well - with
the USD weakening you see investors (from around the world)
allocating some funds to emerging markets (bonds and stocks),
One other thing is that Chinese liquidity has steadily risen
since July (lag effect on equities some of which finds it's way to
other markets).
QRA and Liquidity Discussion - Important
Posted by steve on 5th of Nov 2023 at 12:37 am
Last week, I posted here the major trigger for the market advance was due to the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA). For those unaware, the QRA is when the Treasury tells the markets how much issuance there will be and where it will take place along the curve (bills, notes, bonds). As I have preached over the past several months, the QRA has become a focal point of traders due to the concerns developing in the longer duration (notes and bonds) due to a supply/demand imbalance from the massive amount of debt (leading to large issuance). The last QRA in July surprised the markets when Yellen announced that they would be growing issuance at the long end of the curve which is primarily funded via bank reserves which serves to reduce liquidity (funds allocated to purchase debt versus risk assets). Then on Wednesday, many traders were expecting Yellen to continue that trend of increased supply and longer dated issuance (many were positioned short SPX/TLT). Instead, the QRA showed a slowing of debt issuance along with more issuance dedicated to the shorter end of the curve (which is primarily funded via the RRP not Bank Reserves). This led liquidity traders to reverse their positions on Wednesday pre-market. Thus, Yellen provided the trigger (kicked the can so to say) with additional fuel coming from those liquidity traders reversing (buying risk assets) which creates a shift in structure (technical buy) which then forces the CTAs to reduce shorts/buy and the start of retail FOMO (see the chain reaction leading to a Breadth Thrust). To summarize, the QRA ignited a rally in bonds (lower yields) which in turn leads traders to risk on (buy/ increase allocations of junk bonds, stocks, gold, all risk assets). This is simply all about positioning/flows which is also influenced further by money managers need to press returns for year end bonuses (greed is always in play on Wall Street). Remember my comments last weekend/ Monday about the fuel being present (sentiment, divergences, positioning) but a trigger was required. Janet provided the trigger (ignited the rally) but kicking the can will not solve the problem longer term. Remember the Fram Oil commercial?
Ironically, these actions (easing Financial conditions) make the Feds job that much tougher as longer term yields drop back down (see chart below showing Financial conditions). The is thus pressured to keep the Fed Funds rate higher for longer because of the easing financial conditions.
Chart Source: Market Ear
Below is one article summarizing the importance of the QRA and it's impacts on markets. Click on the QRA link directly below and read for further clarity.
QRA
Update: This is true for foreign markets as well - with the USD weakening you see investors (from around the world) allocating some funds to emerging markets (bonds and stocks), One other thing is that Chinese liquidity has steadily risen since July (lag effect on equities some of which finds it's way to other markets).
Thx Steve
Posted by morton7 on 5th of Nov 2023 at 09:29 am
Thx Steve
Thank you Steve for the
Posted by lnelson214 on 5th of Nov 2023 at 06:03 am
Thank you Steve for the detailed explanation and insight! Really helps me understand.