Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:49 pm
Rate cut questions - JP has to beat them over the head about not
considering rate cuts during every conference call....and they
still ask incessantly. Clearly going to take a long time to
untrain the Pavlovian behavior.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:57 pm
My "parachute" currently is actually an allocation to long dated
naked SPX calls that are way out of the money. Fed is in a
box and will start printing again sooner or later, not sure which,
but it will happen. Typically they don't step in until they can say
with a straight face "we had no choice" which is usually when the
market is falling precipitously and is blowing through support
levels.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:52 pm
Totally, the only likely reason it will happen is because of a
drastic shift in the economic outlook...which always happens
eventually, but it doesn't look imminent given the fiscal moronomy
at play. Notice he's tap dancing around the fiscal issue, but he
did hint at it as the source of the problem at least twice already
by my count.
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Rate cut questions - JP
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:49 pm
Rate cut questions - JP has to beat them over the head about not considering rate cuts during every conference call....and they still ask incessantly. Clearly going to take a long time to untrain the Pavlovian behavior.
When they start to cut
Posted by steve on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:50 pm
When they start to cut rates - make sure you have a parachute
My "parachute" currently is actually
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:57 pm
My "parachute" currently is actually an allocation to long dated naked SPX calls that are way out of the money. Fed is in a box and will start printing again sooner or later, not sure which, but it will happen. Typically they don't step in until they can say with a straight face "we had no choice" which is usually when the market is falling precipitously and is blowing through support levels.
Totally, the only likely reason
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:52 pm
Totally, the only likely reason it will happen is because of a drastic shift in the economic outlook...which always happens eventually, but it doesn't look imminent given the fiscal moronomy at play. Notice he's tap dancing around the fiscal issue, but he did hint at it as the source of the problem at least twice already by my count.