GDX KISS 1/2 day system vs buy and hold

    Posted by matt on 22nd of Sep 2023 at 06:38 pm

    As I've stated before, GDX does not trend well for long periods of time. For the major indexes the majority of years are up years 8/9 out of 10 years are up years vs down years, for GDX only 1/2 of the years have been up years. For the daily standard settings KISS  it's the one ETF that is not profitable over the long term on the daily KISS with a profit factor less than 1. Again the main reason for this since the KISS is long only, is because GDX does not trend well and is down 50% of the years its been in existence.

    that said, I decided to try a smaller time frame a 1/2 day chart because my thoughts were I could enough enough trend on those time frames and now the stats are far far superior to buy and hold. Let's be honest, buy and hold GDX sucks with an average annual gain since 2006 of -6% with almost 1/2 of the years being down years - again contrast that to the market indexes where 8 or 9 out of 10 years are up years. 

    anyway the 1/2 day is quite good at avg 18.5% annual gain vs -6% for buy and hold. The sum total for the KISS is 333% vs 109% buy and hold. Roughly 10 trades a year

    I have not had time to add the drawdown data

    The reason I shorted miners

    Posted by rbreese on 23rd of Sep 2023 at 08:39 am

    The reason I shorted miners yesterday was GDX: GLD was very weak after the brief rally to start the day. 

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