it will be while before that happens, I expect the Dollar in the
short term to have some more downside to complete major wave B
down, then eventually to have another major rally in wave C the 1st
1/3 to 1/2 of next year, which will also coincide with another
major decline in the markets. When C wave ends, then the
Dollar should top ulitmately, but until then inflation will not be
a problem, we are still in deflation. In a credit crisis,
demand for Dollars goes up hence supply/demand, the Fed is trying
to offset this by printing more money, but it is not a process that
turns around easily and overnight.
I agree Matt, deflation trend has longer to go than most people
think. Mish has been very accurate on that in his blogging this
year, saying this today;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Expect more city and state unions across the country to face
the same set of choices as San Francisco: freeze or cut wages, cut
benefits, or face massive layoffs.
Falling or frozen nominal wages across a broad range of
industries is a symptom of a deflationary state, if not outright
economic depression.
And those falling wages in conjunction with rampant
overcapacity, massive destruction of wealth in housing and the
stock market, and panicked boomers facing retirement who will
continue to cut spending, makes it highly unlikely Obama's stimulus
plan will result in hyperinflation anytime soon.
Posted by dylan398 on 24th of Dec 2008 at 02:19 pm
It is kind of odd to see such a HUGE percentage wise drop over
the last 2 days with hardly anyone around......I expect this is a
little overdone in the short term and has alot to do with that 10
dollar spread that was in the contango....Oil went up from 33 to 43
while USO stayed pat......creating an awesome shorting opp. in
hindsight
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it will be while before
DXO chart
Posted by matt on 24th of Dec 2008 at 01:52 pm
it will be while before that happens, I expect the Dollar in the short term to have some more downside to complete major wave B down, then eventually to have another major rally in wave C the 1st 1/3 to 1/2 of next year, which will also coincide with another major decline in the markets. When C wave ends, then the Dollar should top ulitmately, but until then inflation will not be a problem, we are still in deflation. In a credit crisis, demand for Dollars goes up hence supply/demand, the Fed is trying to offset this by printing more money, but it is not a process that turns around easily and overnight.
dxo
Posted by califman4u on 24th of Dec 2008 at 04:12 pm
1.77 after hours trading.....wow
I agree Matt, deflation trend
Posted by homer on 24th of Dec 2008 at 03:05 pm
I agree Matt, deflation trend has longer to go than most people think. Mish has been very accurate on that in his blogging this year, saying this today;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Expect more city and state unions across the country to face the same set of choices as San Francisco: freeze or cut wages, cut benefits, or face massive layoffs.
Falling or frozen nominal wages across a broad range of industries is a symptom of a deflationary state, if not outright economic depression.
And those falling wages in conjunction with rampant overcapacity, massive destruction of wealth in housing and the stock market, and panicked boomers facing retirement who will continue to cut spending, makes it highly unlikely Obama's stimulus plan will result in hyperinflation anytime soon.
It is kind of odd
Posted by dylan398 on 24th of Dec 2008 at 02:19 pm
It is kind of odd to see such a HUGE percentage wise drop over the last 2 days with hardly anyone around......I expect this is a little overdone in the short term and has alot to do with that 10 dollar spread that was in the contango....Oil went up from 33 to 43 while USO stayed pat......creating an awesome shorting opp. in hindsight