"Submitted by Gerald Clifton on Mon,
2008-12-22 23:03.
During the reporting period, gold traded from a low of 789.10 to
a high (intraday) of 842, closing out the week at 841.70. As I
noted last week, the rally came on fresh buying, not short
covering. Open interest jumped from 382,946 contracts (total, a sum
of all the futures contracts traded at the Comex) to 418,216
contracts. This number, unlike the numbers I have been taking off
of the daily Comex price summaries, includes both futures contracts
and options. The fact that new buying came in on top of an
overly-liquidated market, in itself, is very bullish.
The registered speculators (that is, the large speculators --
those trading 200 or more contracts) created much of the move.
Currently, 118 large speculators (up 11 from the last reporting
period) are long 136,916 contracts (up 25,912 contracts from the
prior week), for an average position of 1,160 contracts per bull.
51 large speculators (unchanged from the prior report) are now
short 17,661 contracts (down 4,336 contracts), for an average
position of 346 contracts per bear. Nothing has changed since 2002
-- the large speculator bulls are still running the market. Amid
mysteries, ambiguities, and wild scenarios on both sides of this
market, one fact is abundantly clear -- the big money has been long
for 7+ years, and this group continues to dominate the bidding.
Whatever bullshit about Central Bank (or World Bank, or any other
bank...) selling or serious deflationary influences that will weigh
downward on gold demand circulates about, the numbers don't
lie.
Could this change? Of course. We live with change. But the
shorts will somehow have to take control of these markets. 'Til
now, they have done a piss-poor job of it. The numbers do not lie.
Remember, this is not a blow-off top. Nor was 1030 earlier this
year -- that was a steady climb.
For now, I am also keeping daily tallies of the changes in open
interest, as I noted last week. Friday's sell-off was accompanied
by a drop of 3,103 contracts from the prior day's action (futures
contracts only). Perfect. This is exactly what a $20 drop during a
long-term bull market is supposed to look like."
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COT report Dec 10 to Dec 16 (a repost)
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Dec 2008 at 03:48 am
"Submitted by Gerald Clifton on Mon, 2008-12-22 23:03.
During the reporting period, gold traded from a low of 789.10 to a high (intraday) of 842, closing out the week at 841.70. As I noted last week, the rally came on fresh buying, not short covering. Open interest jumped from 382,946 contracts (total, a sum of all the futures contracts traded at the Comex) to 418,216 contracts. This number, unlike the numbers I have been taking off of the daily Comex price summaries, includes both futures contracts and options. The fact that new buying came in on top of an overly-liquidated market, in itself, is very bullish.
The registered speculators (that is, the large speculators -- those trading 200 or more contracts) created much of the move. Currently, 118 large speculators (up 11 from the last reporting period) are long 136,916 contracts (up 25,912 contracts from the prior week), for an average position of 1,160 contracts per bull. 51 large speculators (unchanged from the prior report) are now short 17,661 contracts (down 4,336 contracts), for an average position of 346 contracts per bear. Nothing has changed since 2002 -- the large speculator bulls are still running the market. Amid mysteries, ambiguities, and wild scenarios on both sides of this market, one fact is abundantly clear -- the big money has been long for 7+ years, and this group continues to dominate the bidding. Whatever bullshit about Central Bank (or World Bank, or any other bank...) selling or serious deflationary influences that will weigh downward on gold demand circulates about, the numbers don't lie.
Could this change? Of course. We live with change. But the shorts will somehow have to take control of these markets. 'Til now, they have done a piss-poor job of it. The numbers do not lie. Remember, this is not a blow-off top. Nor was 1030 earlier this year -- that was a steady climb.
For now, I am also keeping daily tallies of the changes in open interest, as I noted last week. Friday's sell-off was accompanied by a drop of 3,103 contracts from the prior day's action (futures contracts only). Perfect. This is exactly what a $20 drop during a long-term bull market is supposed to look like."