Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:45 am
Sold TQQQ and SPY calls again... waiting to re-enter as the chop
continues. I'm not sure about the TQQQ calls.... I still
think there is potential though for 1 more bank blow up which will
dump Fez and the banks, dump oil, rally USD, QQQs not sure about
Gold and Crypto but they should move up. Maybe this Friday
along with PCE but for that to play out I think the QQQs and Crypto
and GDX need to come down by eod tomorrow in a big way. This
would be an ideal setup for a bank bail out and then an April rally
in Transports, Banks, IWM and OIL along with a sell off in the QQQs
and probably Gold and Crypto. Just to level things out a
little. Timing is always tricky but this seems a plausible
setup.
fresaid, I am leery of overnight gaps after a down day, which
have become a norm. Clearly, buying is discouraged, and impulsive
buying after a gap is encouraged. The reverse side of that is a
professional selling near highs without disturbing the market
price. Hence, I am not looking for much upside in April with an
exception of a big spike on the news to stop out retail short
holders.
I would focus on trading a failed breakout to the upside on /NQ
to get short, and a good dip in gold, and perhaps platinum.
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 12:25 pm
Valid point. I was looking at all those Volatility charts
Matt posted yesterday and it looked like all of them have room to
move to the upside indicating that the markets certainly have room
to move down before forming any kind of short term bottom.
Getting pulled in both directions as the April Bullish Sentiment
kicks in but given where we are along with the almost certain big
break coming soon. The scenario i presented is still viable,
heck the whole market could sell off along with a rally in banks
and oil and the SnP would still be rangebound and the QQQs should
have a failed breakouts as you stated and hopefully we'll get a
better opportunity to get into Gold.
to me yesterday was noise - SPX closed in the middle of that
coil from the 60 min. QQQ's were weakest but that was too be
expected as some money rotates out of that area. Looks like I did
the opposite to you, I wasn't worried about a gap down in the
market this morning, yesterday the SPX closed right in the coil and
bounced off the uptrend line on the 15 min chart, I favored a gap
up in the market over the small trendline on that 60 min SPX not a
gap down and took some URPO long yesterday near the close and in
after hrs - worked out
even now we are still within the coil like pattern on the 60 min
SPX. We continue be in a choppy range, which I favor
Matt, thanks again for sharing your style. Is there a good risk
indicator that works for you to make these calls? $VIX was down
yesterday, while HYG was down too. I trade MES, and need to be
aware of stops for overnight action.
Sold TQQQ and SPY calls
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:45 am
Sold TQQQ and SPY calls again... waiting to re-enter as the chop continues. I'm not sure about the TQQQ calls.... I still think there is potential though for 1 more bank blow up which will dump Fez and the banks, dump oil, rally USD, QQQs not sure about Gold and Crypto but they should move up. Maybe this Friday along with PCE but for that to play out I think the QQQs and Crypto and GDX need to come down by eod tomorrow in a big way. This would be an ideal setup for a bank bail out and then an April rally in Transports, Banks, IWM and OIL along with a sell off in the QQQs and probably Gold and Crypto. Just to level things out a little. Timing is always tricky but this seems a plausible setup.
fresaid, I am leery of
Posted by junkie on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:19 am
fresaid, I am leery of overnight gaps after a down day, which have become a norm. Clearly, buying is discouraged, and impulsive buying after a gap is encouraged. The reverse side of that is a professional selling near highs without disturbing the market price. Hence, I am not looking for much upside in April with an exception of a big spike on the news to stop out retail short holders.
I would focus on trading a failed breakout to the upside on /NQ to get short, and a good dip in gold, and perhaps platinum.
Valid point. I was looking
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 12:25 pm
Valid point. I was looking at all those Volatility charts Matt posted yesterday and it looked like all of them have room to move to the upside indicating that the markets certainly have room to move down before forming any kind of short term bottom. Getting pulled in both directions as the April Bullish Sentiment kicks in but given where we are along with the almost certain big break coming soon. The scenario i presented is still viable, heck the whole market could sell off along with a rally in banks and oil and the SnP would still be rangebound and the QQQs should have a failed breakouts as you stated and hopefully we'll get a better opportunity to get into Gold.
to me yesterday was noise
Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:31 am
to me yesterday was noise - SPX closed in the middle of that coil from the 60 min. QQQ's were weakest but that was too be expected as some money rotates out of that area. Looks like I did the opposite to you, I wasn't worried about a gap down in the market this morning, yesterday the SPX closed right in the coil and bounced off the uptrend line on the 15 min chart, I favored a gap up in the market over the small trendline on that 60 min SPX not a gap down and took some URPO long yesterday near the close and in after hrs - worked out
even now we are still within the coil like pattern on the 60 min SPX. We continue be in a choppy range, which I favor
Matt, thanks again for sharing
Posted by junkie on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:38 am
Matt, thanks again for sharing your style. Is there a good risk indicator that works for you to make these calls? $VIX was down yesterday, while HYG was down too. I trade MES, and need to be aware of stops for overnight action.
Fred thanks for your thoughts.
Posted by rbreese on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:46 am
Fred thanks for your thoughts.