I hope everyone had a nice weekend! As you know I was out of
town last week traveling both personal and business, and as is the
usual case typically whenever Steve or myself travels, the market
tends to sell off sharply, and that ended up being the case once
again. For the week the SPX lost -2.7%, the Dow Jones lost -3%, the
QQQ fell -3.3%, and IWM small caps gave back -2.9%. Every sector we
follow (21 of them) closed down between -2% to -4%, save for XLE
energy which gained a paltry +0.2%.
The
US Dollarhad a huge week gaining 1.4% and that helped to
create weakness across the board, commodities, and precious metals.
Also of note; emerging markets and Chinese stocks, which lead the
market rally, have been leading the decline down.
The
10-Year Yieldcontinues to rally and is becoming a cause for
concern
Long-termwe called for a bear market over a year ago, back
in December 2021 and confirmed it in January 2022. Our opinion have
never waivered and we still think we are overall in a longer term
bear market. It become obvious from the various breadth indicator
that the market had put in a decent trade low in October.
Short-termthe market put in a high in early February (SPX
4195) and in has followed typical seasonality weakness for
February, with a sell off nearly off of February. The
SPX is testing the year plus long downtrend linethat was
broken in January and also
tested the 200 day MA on Friday with a doji candlestick.
This is potential major support, but the onus is on the 'bulls' to
intercept the football from the 'bears' and attempt a rally. It's
possible that the SPX completed a wave C high in early February and
that was the highs for the bear market rally. It's also possible
for the 'bulls' to attempt one more rally off this area and test
some of those higher areas that we've had marked as important
around the 4300 area.
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my writeup for the weekend, will record here shortly
Posted by matt on 26th of Feb 2023 at 04:37 pm
I hope everyone had a nice weekend! As you know I was out of town last week traveling both personal and business, and as is the usual case typically whenever Steve or myself travels, the market tends to sell off sharply, and that ended up being the case once again. For the week the SPX lost -2.7%, the Dow Jones lost -3%, the QQQ fell -3.3%, and IWM small caps gave back -2.9%. Every sector we follow (21 of them) closed down between -2% to -4%, save for XLE energy which gained a paltry +0.2%.
The US Dollarhad a huge week gaining 1.4% and that helped to create weakness across the board, commodities, and precious metals. Also of note; emerging markets and Chinese stocks, which lead the market rally, have been leading the decline down.
The 10-Year Yieldcontinues to rally and is becoming a cause for concern
Long-termwe called for a bear market over a year ago, back in December 2021 and confirmed it in January 2022. Our opinion have never waivered and we still think we are overall in a longer term bear market. It become obvious from the various breadth indicator that the market had put in a decent trade low in October.
Short-termthe market put in a high in early February (SPX 4195) and in has followed typical seasonality weakness for February, with a sell off nearly off of February. The SPX is testing the year plus long downtrend linethat was broken in January and also tested the 200 day MA on Friday with a doji candlestick. This is potential major support, but the onus is on the 'bulls' to intercept the football from the 'bears' and attempt a rally. It's possible that the SPX completed a wave C high in early February and that was the highs for the bear market rally. It's also possible for the 'bulls' to attempt one more rally off this area and test some of those higher areas that we've had marked as important around the 4300 area.