Posted by lewiscook on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:43 pm
Steve, given I am not good with macroeconomics I'm hoping you
can help. Is what we are learning within the Fed minutes as
well as what is currently being realized with earnings in general
demonstrative of the expectations from what Mike Wilson of Morgan
Stanley contributed in January? Thanks for all you and Matt
do. ~Lew
The minutes are old news since new data arrived following
(monthly payroll, CPI, and PPI and upward revisions to previous
reports) but traders fixated on FOMC comments - what Mike Wilson is
predicting is a earnings recession ahead but thus far the economy
has been fairly resilient as the higher rates typically take time
to run their course (especially due to all the pent up savings from
the stimulus). Earnings for the quarter have come in below
expectations but only slightly thus far.
I have attached the link below from Feb 20th comments from Mike
Wilson
Interest rate expectations are rising again after the Fed
minutes. The market is now seeing a 26% chance of a 50 bps rate
hike in March! There is a 28% chance that rates rise as high as
5.75% by July. 50 bps rate hikes are back on the table.
Steve, given I am not
Posted by lewiscook on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:43 pm
Steve, given I am not good with macroeconomics I'm hoping you can help. Is what we are learning within the Fed minutes as well as what is currently being realized with earnings in general demonstrative of the expectations from what Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley contributed in January? Thanks for all you and Matt do. ~Lew
The minutes are old news
Posted by steve on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:49 pm
The minutes are old news since new data arrived following (monthly payroll, CPI, and PPI and upward revisions to previous reports) but traders fixated on FOMC comments - what Mike Wilson is predicting is a earnings recession ahead but thus far the economy has been fairly resilient as the higher rates typically take time to run their course (especially due to all the pent up savings from the stimulus). Earnings for the quarter have come in below expectations but only slightly thus far.
I have attached the link below from Feb 20th comments from Mike Wilson
Mike Wilson Commentary
This has changed recently with the new data points - it's always fluid
Posted by steve on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:50 pm
Interest rate expectations are rising again after the Fed minutes. The market is now seeing a 26% chance of a 50 bps rate hike in March! There is a 28% chance that rates rise as high as 5.75% by July. 50 bps rate hikes are back on the table.
Again, thank you!
Posted by lewiscook on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:54 pm
Again, thank you!
Lew please refresh and you
Posted by steve on 22nd of Feb 2023 at 02:56 pm
Lew please refresh and you will see I added a link below to Mike Wilson commentary