Sharing the latest BaR Grid from Econ PI. The
indicators (summarized by the green and red dots) have been
trending down and into the decline quad the last few months.
Well, Friday we had the mean of coordinates and leading
indicators switch into the expansion quad, albeit very low to zero.
Not saying we are avoiding a recession, but the fact that
this chart has been so stubborn is interesting to me. Why
would the Fed pivot with strong jobs (professionals and
construction workers remain in strong demand and with increasing
wages) and growth (even weak growth)? Seems they may need to
raise more than most expect...perhaps in a few months once they
realize they didn't go far enough? Definitely different than
past cycles I've experienced.
Thanks - such data supports the Fed statements of Higher for
Longer (It takes time for the rate increases to take hold just like
it took time for all the stimulus to ramp inflation). Also
many of the job data reports are now being impacted by people
having to take on two jobs due to the cost of living increases (the
monthly payroll data does not break this out).
For example, Barry Sternlicht stated in the real
estate development sector said that construction jobs are still
working on existing projects but that with the current rate
structure they are not seeing reasons to make any new investments
(the economics don't work) so that he anticipates job losses in
this arena to mount once existing projects are completed.
Sharing the latest BaR Grid
Posted by jared95 on 5th of Feb 2023 at 01:54 pm
Sharing the latest BaR Grid from Econ PI. The indicators (summarized by the green and red dots) have been trending down and into the decline quad the last few months. Well, Friday we had the mean of coordinates and leading indicators switch into the expansion quad, albeit very low to zero. Not saying we are avoiding a recession, but the fact that this chart has been so stubborn is interesting to me. Why would the Fed pivot with strong jobs (professionals and construction workers remain in strong demand and with increasing wages) and growth (even weak growth)? Seems they may need to raise more than most expect...perhaps in a few months once they realize they didn't go far enough? Definitely different than past cycles I've experienced.
http://www.econpi.com/index.php
Thanks - such data supports
Posted by steve on 5th of Feb 2023 at 02:15 pm
Thanks - such data supports the Fed statements of Higher for Longer (It takes time for the rate increases to take hold just like it took time for all the stimulus to ramp inflation). Also many of the job data reports are now being impacted by people having to take on two jobs due to the cost of living increases (the monthly payroll data does not break this out).
For example, Barry Sternlicht stated in the real estate development sector said that construction jobs are still working on existing projects but that with the current rate structure they are not seeing reasons to make any new investments (the economics don't work) so that he anticipates job losses in this arena to mount once existing projects are completed.
Thanks for the ES Support/Resistance
Posted by Ray on 5th of Feb 2023 at 02:44 pm
Thanks for the ES Support/Resistance levels to monitor.