DigiNomad, your analysis is based on domestic money flows. If
you consider international money flows-- as evidenced by the Dow
being the strongest index -- a recovery will be swifter than many
years. Watching the strength of the USD will provide a clue.
The USD is expected to start strengthening in January reversing
its current trend.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Dec 2022 at 04:18 pm
junkie, it's not my premise and I definitely consider global
money flows (coordinated central banks for quite a while now...to a
certain extent). The recovery will not likely be very swift because
we came from market multiples near 30. It was a huge bubble level
and is still at bubble levels. Once we normalize, say at a 16 PE
overall, the market won't take off again without more monetary
policy intervention (*the economy and the market are two different
things...I'm talking about markets).
The dollar will be strong as long as the rate is relatively
higher and projected to continue higher (again, relative to other
currencies). I personally hope it stays strong. The weaker dollar
everyone hopes for only benefits the elites that benefit from
multinational corporate profits - weak dollar sucks for normal
Americans.
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DigiNomad, your analysis is based
Posted by junkie on 28th of Dec 2022 at 03:37 pm
DigiNomad, your analysis is based on domestic money flows. If you consider international money flows-- as evidenced by the Dow being the strongest index -- a recovery will be swifter than many years. Watching the strength of the USD will provide a clue.
The USD is expected to start strengthening in January reversing its current trend.
junkie, it's not my premise
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Dec 2022 at 04:18 pm
junkie, it's not my premise and I definitely consider global money flows (coordinated central banks for quite a while now...to a certain extent). The recovery will not likely be very swift because we came from market multiples near 30. It was a huge bubble level and is still at bubble levels. Once we normalize, say at a 16 PE overall, the market won't take off again without more monetary policy intervention (*the economy and the market are two different things...I'm talking about markets).
The dollar will be strong as long as the rate is relatively higher and projected to continue higher (again, relative to other currencies). I personally hope it stays strong. The weaker dollar everyone hopes for only benefits the elites that benefit from multinational corporate profits - weak dollar sucks for normal Americans.