U.S. Empire State manufacturing plunged -42.4 points to -31.3 in
August, much weaker than forecast, after rebounding 12.3 points to
11.1 in July. That is the fifth weakest of all time (data back to
2001). It is the lowest since the -48.5 in May 2020, and compares
to the all-time nadir of -78.2 from April 2020. Weakness was
broadbased but a lot of the decline was a function new orders which
crashed to -29.6 from 6.2 and shipments which tumbled to -24.1 from
25.3. The employment metric fell to 7.4 after dipping 1 point to
18.0. The workweek dropped to -13.1 from 4.3.The prices paid gauge
slipped to 55.5 from 64.3 and is down from the record peak of 86.4
in April. Prices received edged up to 32.7 from 31.3.The 6-month
general business index bounced to 2.1 versus the prior drop to
-6.2. The future employment index improved to 30.0 from 22.5. New
orders climbed to 14.0 from unchanged. Prices paid rose to 49.1
from 43.5, with prices received at 43.6 from 28.7. Capex dipped to
12.7 versus the -9.1 point drop to 16.5.
The only thing that will fix inflation is severe deflation in
multiple areas. The runaway spending and debt that has continued
must be paid for. Eventually the risk of lower stock prices goes
way up. It is going to be a matter of time and when sentiment
changes in my view. And when the people behind the curtain change
the machine settings from buy to sell.
I'm using the strength to reposition for the balance of the
year. I was buying in 3,600-3,700s. And I want to be selling some
4,200-4,300s. No matter what happens I'll be in good shape either
way. Risk/reward.
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Empire Manufacturing
Posted by steve on 15th of Aug 2022 at 08:56 am
U.S. Empire State manufacturing plunged -42.4 points to -31.3 in August, much weaker than forecast, after rebounding 12.3 points to 11.1 in July. That is the fifth weakest of all time (data back to 2001). It is the lowest since the -48.5 in May 2020, and compares to the all-time nadir of -78.2 from April 2020. Weakness was broadbased but a lot of the decline was a function new orders which crashed to -29.6 from 6.2 and shipments which tumbled to -24.1 from 25.3. The employment metric fell to 7.4 after dipping 1 point to 18.0. The workweek dropped to -13.1 from 4.3.The prices paid gauge slipped to 55.5 from 64.3 and is down from the record peak of 86.4 in April. Prices received edged up to 32.7 from 31.3.The 6-month general business index bounced to 2.1 versus the prior drop to -6.2. The future employment index improved to 30.0 from 22.5. New orders climbed to 14.0 from unchanged. Prices paid rose to 49.1 from 43.5, with prices received at 43.6 from 28.7. Capex dipped to 12.7 versus the -9.1 point drop to 16.5.
The only thing that will
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 15th of Aug 2022 at 09:12 am
The only thing that will fix inflation is severe deflation in multiple areas. The runaway spending and debt that has continued must be paid for. Eventually the risk of lower stock prices goes way up. It is going to be a matter of time and when sentiment changes in my view. And when the people behind the curtain change the machine settings from buy to sell.
I'm using the strength to reposition for the balance of the year. I was buying in 3,600-3,700s. And I want to be selling some 4,200-4,300s. No matter what happens I'll be in good shape either way. Risk/reward.