SPX Gotta admit, this market is making me rethink selling any of
my long term assets. We are well allocated to ensure a worse case
scenario with what we have overall. The bottom line is I want to
come out of 2023 with more stocks than I did before because the
next bull market expansion will ultimately have highs come again.
And if not, I won't be here to worry about it.
We continued to accumulate even when things dropped into the
3,600s this year. My prior consideration was to sell all that
inventory back up at 4,220s if we get there. With 70-75% of
earnings being good there is certainly an argument that the bottom
is in. I still may sell that part of the inventory if we get there
though. It would secure even more peace of mind for me. I think it
particularly makes sense knowing the concerns that remain. The
risk/reward would be reasonable to give inventory back to the
market with making money in between. It could take significant time
to make that spread again.
I can't ignore the negatives which I've outlined over the last
days and have been discussed so many times. We have 5 gaps below
now and the market is overbought. The VIX is about to hit that
demand zone Steve showed in the newsletter. A 64 RSI is very risky
here for new longs to say the least. Very extended here. Next gap
above is the 4,176.82. I'd be surprised if it made it in a
straightline but who knows. Sentiment can carry things further than
expected in both directions. Caution is elevated for me. Protect,
monitor, and adjust. There is always another trade, the market just
wants me to believe there isn't. I've been doing this long enough
to know better.
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SPX Gotta admit, this market
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 29th of Jul 2022 at 10:06 am
SPX Gotta admit, this market is making me rethink selling any of my long term assets. We are well allocated to ensure a worse case scenario with what we have overall. The bottom line is I want to come out of 2023 with more stocks than I did before because the next bull market expansion will ultimately have highs come again. And if not, I won't be here to worry about it.
We continued to accumulate even when things dropped into the 3,600s this year. My prior consideration was to sell all that inventory back up at 4,220s if we get there. With 70-75% of earnings being good there is certainly an argument that the bottom is in. I still may sell that part of the inventory if we get there though. It would secure even more peace of mind for me. I think it particularly makes sense knowing the concerns that remain. The risk/reward would be reasonable to give inventory back to the market with making money in between. It could take significant time to make that spread again.
I can't ignore the negatives which I've outlined over the last days and have been discussed so many times. We have 5 gaps below now and the market is overbought. The VIX is about to hit that demand zone Steve showed in the newsletter. A 64 RSI is very risky here for new longs to say the least. Very extended here. Next gap above is the 4,176.82. I'd be surprised if it made it in a straightline but who knows. Sentiment can carry things further than expected in both directions. Caution is elevated for me. Protect, monitor, and adjust. There is always another trade, the market just wants me to believe there isn't. I've been doing this long enough to know better.