SPX I think many have been conditioned to be bearish now and
assume rallies, even large ones can't happen.
What if I said the market could rally 10-20% off the bottom here
with no problem? Even after an inverted yield curve. There is a
case for a big pocket of strength before things top. That can be
the order of things and has been in the past.
We are in a bottoming process right now. Likely some more
turbulence with options expiration and orders coming in, though
once it passes we also get buybacks coming in and it can go higher
just like it went lower. What if the war were to end? Yes there
have been some layoffs though the overall labor market is
strong.
The short trade is long in the tooth. The Fed has acted and will
act again. Those wanting to sell any rally may find they can't
enter as easily again and have left a lot on the table.
3 gaps above to start and the 9 day sitting at 3,970. 4,017 gap
area looks reasonable after the 3,900 gap. 4,050 comes to mind as a
previous area. There is another gap at 4,176.
20-25% corrections happen throughout history. I have no trouble
getting bearish when it is warranted. The risk/reward right now is
to be bullish. Climb the wall of worry, one day at a time? Keeping
an open mind.
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SPX I think many have
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 15th of Jun 2022 at 06:51 pm
SPX I think many have been conditioned to be bearish now and assume rallies, even large ones can't happen.
What if I said the market could rally 10-20% off the bottom here with no problem? Even after an inverted yield curve. There is a case for a big pocket of strength before things top. That can be the order of things and has been in the past.
We are in a bottoming process right now. Likely some more turbulence with options expiration and orders coming in, though once it passes we also get buybacks coming in and it can go higher just like it went lower. What if the war were to end? Yes there have been some layoffs though the overall labor market is strong.
The short trade is long in the tooth. The Fed has acted and will act again. Those wanting to sell any rally may find they can't enter as easily again and have left a lot on the table.
3 gaps above to start and the 9 day sitting at 3,970. 4,017 gap area looks reasonable after the 3,900 gap. 4,050 comes to mind as a previous area. There is another gap at 4,176.
20-25% corrections happen throughout history. I have no trouble getting bearish when it is warranted. The risk/reward right now is to be bullish. Climb the wall of worry, one day at a time? Keeping an open mind.