SPX Keeping an eye on the two gaps below if things start to head
south at 4,057 and 3,978. One view is a chance for a higher low,
forming a right shoulder of a reverse h&s pattern (bottoming
process). This would send the market back up big in the next wave.
The other view is that we are headed down to test the 3,800s or
make a new low at some point. There is a gap at 4,176s from
Thurdsay's close and 4,220 the 50% fib of this last range on the
upside. Nobody knows what will happen or when.
Note: XBI up 3.55% IWM down 0.90% on Friday vs. SPX
down 1.63% and QQQ down 2.6%. Good signs that some higher risk
buying is happening relative to indexes.
I'm skeptical that things are just going to plummet and the bear
market be this well telegraphed and known, particularly from the
levels it is at now. There are too many people expecting doom and
conditioned to sell as it has been a tough environment since the
beginning of the year. I pointed out before we had the recent
bottom that nobody believed the market could rally again. I agree
that it is tough to see how the market can make sustained progress
given the sticky inflation and Fed policy. That doesn't mean there
can't be a pocket of strength though in between (corp buybacks, Fed
policy adjustment/delay, the war ending, etc) before the larger
unwinding happens. Sentiment is whacky thing and it has changed
some recently. It takes time and usually holds for periods of time.
It could take weeks/months.
I review my plan when the market isn't open, that way when the
market is open, I can just execute based upon it. No need to watch
every tick for me. Set a few alerts/orders and go on with my life.
I consider how I invest my money and my life everyday. Less is more
for me. I'm only using two to three instruments maximum in my
trading account. Anything else is overkill and too much to manage
for me. Our long term investment accounts I run differently and
make changes in times of extremes on the buy and sell side to work
with allocations accordingly.
Headed to a celebration tonight in the city of my wife's culture
with food, music, and dance. Looking forward to it. Enjoy your
Sunday!
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SPX Keeping an eye on
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of Jun 2022 at 07:59 am
SPX Keeping an eye on the two gaps below if things start to head south at 4,057 and 3,978. One view is a chance for a higher low, forming a right shoulder of a reverse h&s pattern (bottoming process). This would send the market back up big in the next wave. The other view is that we are headed down to test the 3,800s or make a new low at some point. There is a gap at 4,176s from Thurdsay's close and 4,220 the 50% fib of this last range on the upside. Nobody knows what will happen or when.
This was at 6 when we bottomed, now at 27, so some improvement: cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed AAII also showed a marked improvement as I prior mentioned: aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Note: XBI up 3.55% IWM down 0.90% on Friday vs. SPX down 1.63% and QQQ down 2.6%. Good signs that some higher risk buying is happening relative to indexes.
I'm skeptical that things are just going to plummet and the bear market be this well telegraphed and known, particularly from the levels it is at now. There are too many people expecting doom and conditioned to sell as it has been a tough environment since the beginning of the year. I pointed out before we had the recent bottom that nobody believed the market could rally again. I agree that it is tough to see how the market can make sustained progress given the sticky inflation and Fed policy. That doesn't mean there can't be a pocket of strength though in between (corp buybacks, Fed policy adjustment/delay, the war ending, etc) before the larger unwinding happens. Sentiment is whacky thing and it has changed some recently. It takes time and usually holds for periods of time. It could take weeks/months.
I review my plan when the market isn't open, that way when the market is open, I can just execute based upon it. No need to watch every tick for me. Set a few alerts/orders and go on with my life. I consider how I invest my money and my life everyday. Less is more for me. I'm only using two to three instruments maximum in my trading account. Anything else is overkill and too much to manage for me. Our long term investment accounts I run differently and make changes in times of extremes on the buy and sell side to work with allocations accordingly.
Headed to a celebration tonight in the city of my wife's culture with food, music, and dance. Looking forward to it. Enjoy your Sunday!