and stupid CNBC who defines a bear market as a 20% decline even
if that's only a month long like in early 2020.
To me, there's not a set definition or number for a bear market:
To me bear markets can be described as a combination of price
AND Time and emotion, and a change in leadership - it's the
combination of all of these things, NOT some arbitrary 20%
decline. Some quick hard 20% sell off that results in new highs
quickly with the same leadership is simply a correction. True bear
markets are not as much about a price decline but about time and
wearing you out - go through a 20/30% correction that only lasts 1
month long, as long as you were not over leveraged, you can just
wait that out, and it's not long enough to get you to change your
mind about things. Bear markets have to last long enough to cause
investors to give up, wear out, maybe that's a 1 year, 1.5 years, 2
years etc. A 30% correction that takes 2 years to occur is
much worse to deal with than one that takes 1 month. Also, and
probably most importantly is a change in leadership occurs. What
was hot during the bull market and was wise to buy every dip does
not lead after the bear market is over, you get a change in
leadership. Investors get worn out not just because of price
declines but also because emotionally they keep chasing putting all
their strategy/energy into trying to reposition into the old
leaders - which is the wrong approach.
To me bear markets can be described as a combination of price
AND Time and emotion, and a change in leadership - it's the
combination of all of these things, NOT some arbitrary 20% decline
like CNBC defines as a bear market. So to me it's a
combination of 3-4 things, not one thing
Posted by retirefire on 25th of Apr 2022 at 02:56 pm
Yeah just repeating the si called analyst. I don't think
anybody really thinks it's half over.... I think he was relating to
major cash and positioning may be similar to whats seen in the
middle of any mrkt. One foot on each side of fence
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Like Ron Insana said ...
NAAIM Data
Posted by retirefire on 25th of Apr 2022 at 02:11 pm
Like Ron Insana said ... middle of bear mrkt?
middle? LOL early innings like
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2022 at 02:21 pm
middle? LOL early innings like a baseball analogy
and stupid CNBC who defines a bear market as a 20% decline even if that's only a month long like in early 2020.
To me, there's not a set definition or number for a bear market: To me bear markets can be described as a combination of price AND Time and emotion, and a change in leadership - it's the combination of all of these things, NOT some arbitrary 20% decline. Some quick hard 20% sell off that results in new highs quickly with the same leadership is simply a correction. True bear markets are not as much about a price decline but about time and wearing you out - go through a 20/30% correction that only lasts 1 month long, as long as you were not over leveraged, you can just wait that out, and it's not long enough to get you to change your mind about things. Bear markets have to last long enough to cause investors to give up, wear out, maybe that's a 1 year, 1.5 years, 2 years etc. A 30% correction that takes 2 years to occur is much worse to deal with than one that takes 1 month. Also, and probably most importantly is a change in leadership occurs. What was hot during the bull market and was wise to buy every dip does not lead after the bear market is over, you get a change in leadership. Investors get worn out not just because of price declines but also because emotionally they keep chasing putting all their strategy/energy into trying to reposition into the old leaders - which is the wrong approach.
To me bear markets can
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2022 at 02:23 pm
To me bear markets can be described as a combination of price AND Time and emotion, and a change in leadership - it's the combination of all of these things, NOT some arbitrary 20% decline like CNBC defines as a bear market. So to me it's a combination of 3-4 things, not one thing
Yeah just repeating the si
Posted by retirefire on 25th of Apr 2022 at 02:56 pm
Yeah just repeating the si called analyst. I don't think anybody really thinks it's half over.... I think he was relating to major cash and positioning may be similar to whats seen in the middle of any mrkt. One foot on each side of fence