$SPX I am revising my forecast
downward for 2022 to a range of 4,800-3,855 for the S&P
500, which expresses my view that growth will slow as inflation
impacts earnings.
The Federal Reserve rate hikes and
balance sheet adjustments will continue to challenge forward
progress. Present and future geopolitical concerns are also
headwinds with the U.S. financial situation being higher risk. The
bottom end figure represents a 20% correction from the all time
highs. After a substantial upward move over the last few
years in markets on the back of dovish monetary policy, the time
has come to pay the bill. Tools are now very limited in regards to
monetary policy and the way forward must continue to combat
inflation. Markets haven't lived with this new normal environment
yet and it is unclear how balance sheet reductions and asset
purchase decreases will change things.
Volatility event(s) may present
opportunities on both ends of the range for capitulation during the
year. These will be important to capture if presented to investors.
My previous forecast at the beginning of 2022 was a range of
5,000 and 4,000 on the lower end.
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$SPX I am revising my
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 19th of Mar 2022 at 09:39 am
$SPX I am revising my forecast downward for 2022 to a range of 4,800-3,855 for the S&P 500, which expresses my view that growth will slow as inflation impacts earnings.
The Federal Reserve rate hikes and balance sheet adjustments will continue to challenge forward progress. Present and future geopolitical concerns are also headwinds with the U.S. financial situation being higher risk. The bottom end figure represents a 20% correction from the all time highs. After a substantial upward move over the last few years in markets on the back of dovish monetary policy, the time has come to pay the bill. Tools are now very limited in regards to monetary policy and the way forward must continue to combat inflation. Markets haven't lived with this new normal environment yet and it is unclear how balance sheet reductions and asset purchase decreases will change things.
Volatility event(s) may present opportunities on both ends of the range for capitulation during the year. These will be important to capture if presented to investors. My previous forecast at the beginning of 2022 was a range of 5,000 and 4,000 on the lower end.