The action has been terrible since the beginning of the year,
but we are at a 25 RSI in the SPX and QQQ now, We did have about a
12% correction from the highs. I was looking for 10-15% total.
Unless the Apple report is horrible, I believe we are carving out a
trading bottom. That being said, if the recent lows on SPX were to
break, it would be easy to be very constructive at the 15%
correction level, starting at 4,095 or a bit lower over the next 12
months for me. I think the Fed stuff is priced in now.
One thing that does concern me longer term is the monthly closes
chart on the indexes. It is pretty stretched for the long term and
would be healthy to see it reset a bit. The middle Bollinger
Band on the monthly closes for SPX is a bit under 4,000 right now.
That would align pretty close to the greater end of my corrective
forecast. This forecast is based on the what we know, of course the
answers likely lie in the what we don't know.
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The action has been terrible
Futures huge recovery and comments
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 27th of Jan 2022 at 08:19 am
The action has been terrible since the beginning of the year, but we are at a 25 RSI in the SPX and QQQ now, We did have about a 12% correction from the highs. I was looking for 10-15% total. Unless the Apple report is horrible, I believe we are carving out a trading bottom. That being said, if the recent lows on SPX were to break, it would be easy to be very constructive at the 15% correction level, starting at 4,095 or a bit lower over the next 12 months for me. I think the Fed stuff is priced in now.
One thing that does concern me longer term is the monthly closes chart on the indexes. It is pretty stretched for the long term and would be healthy to see it reset a bit. The middle Bollinger Band on the monthly closes for SPX is a bit under 4,000 right now. That would align pretty close to the greater end of my corrective forecast. This forecast is based on the what we know, of course the answers likely lie in the what we don't know.