Posted by dbray740 on 12th of Nov 2008 at 07:39 pm
I've been looking for an opp to pick up PWE and PGH on the
cheap, and it looks like I'm going to get it (esp. if oil drops to
the low $50s and we have a wave E sell-off in the broad
market). Anyhow, does anyone with more experience
than me have a clue as to whether these trusts are likely to
reduce their dividends in 2009 due to
the pullback? I doubt anyone here has crystal balls (I
don't!), but I thought I'd ask as part of my due diligence. (I'll
do some real research as well, but I wanted to start here.)
Thanks!
If Oil and Gas continue to fall then they will have to reduce
their dividends but even if they were cut in half you still have
double digit dividends. Remember that some of these funds that are
well established were cash generative when oil was $30-40 a barrel
and if you believe in peak oil and T.Boone Pickens positive outlook
for Nat gas then they should whether the storm until prices pick up
again. I have started to scale into such funds and will buy more if
they drop futher.
PWE - Has made some good hedging moves and have locked in some
production at higher prices
"We actively hedged oil
and natural gas prices for 2009 and currently have WTI collars on
30,000 barrels per day of 2009
oil production at US$80.00 per barrel by US$110.21 per barrel and
101,000 GJ per day of 2009 natural
gas production under collars at $7.88 per GJ by $11.27 per GJ.
In October 2008, we monetized
a portion of our crude oil financial contracts which resulted in
cash proceeds of approximately $123 million." and have fixed their
dividends to at least Jan 09
"Penn West’s Board of Directors
recently resolved to keep the Trust’s distribution level at $0.34
per
unit per month, for the months of November, December and
January subject to maintenance of
current forecasts of commodity prices, production levels and
planned capital expenditures."
They also have the ability
to reduce or increase capacity as and when it is required. Here is
their Qtr report which I recommend to you...
PWE Report
Posted by shellysan on 12th of Nov 2008 at 09:28 pm
You may want to go to Yahoo Finance and under Headlines, go to
PWE's earnings statement today. At least until Jan I believe
it said, they will continue their divident at $.34 per
share. That's about 27% at current price.
I did see an oil analyst on CNBC say he thinks an entry into
NGAS just under $6.00 is a favorable point.
Posted by cwintemute on 12th of Nov 2008 at 11:20 pm
TD waterhouse rates both as holds, lowered price targets &
forecasts initial distribution cuts of 10 - 15% in early 2009. With
these Canadian trusts you have to review their hedging policies
& check your crystal ball for the future $USD/$CDN
exchanges.Good luck short or longer term trading terms.
Oil Trusts (PWE and PGH)
Posted by dbray740 on 12th of Nov 2008 at 07:39 pm
I've been looking for an opp to pick up PWE and PGH on the cheap, and it looks like I'm going to get it (esp. if oil drops to the low $50s and we have a wave E sell-off in the broad market). Anyhow, does anyone with more experience than me have a clue as to whether these trusts are likely to reduce their dividends in 2009 due to the pullback? I doubt anyone here has crystal balls (I don't!), but I thought I'd ask as part of my due diligence. (I'll do some real research as well, but I wanted to start here.) Thanks!
Title: PWE If Oil and Gas
Posted by saturn6 on 13th of Nov 2008 at 04:24 am
If Oil and Gas continue to fall then they will have to reduce their dividends but even if they were cut in half you still have double digit dividends. Remember that some of these funds that are well established were cash generative when oil was $30-40 a barrel and if you believe in peak oil and T.Boone Pickens positive outlook for Nat gas then they should whether the storm until prices pick up again. I have started to scale into such funds and will buy more if they drop futher.
PWE - Has made some good hedging moves and have locked in some production at higher prices "We actively hedged oil and natural gas prices for 2009 and currently have WTI collars on 30,000
barrels per day of 2009 oil production at US$80.00 per barrel by US$110.21 per barrel and 101,000
GJ per day of 2009 natural gas production under collars at $7.88 per GJ by $11.27 per GJ. In
October 2008, we monetized a portion of our crude oil financial contracts which resulted in cash
proceeds of approximately $123 million." and have fixed their dividends to at least Jan 09 "Penn West’s Board of Directors recently resolved to keep the Trust’s distribution level at $0.34 per
unit per month, for the months of November, December and January subject to maintenance of
current forecasts of commodity prices, production levels and planned capital expenditures."
They also have the ability to reduce or increase capacity as and when it is required. Here is their Qtr report which I recommend to you... PWE Report
You may want to go
Posted by shellysan on 12th of Nov 2008 at 09:28 pm
You may want to go to Yahoo Finance and under Headlines, go to PWE's earnings statement today. At least until Jan I believe it said, they will continue their divident at $.34 per share. That's about 27% at current price.
I did see an oil analyst on CNBC say he thinks an entry into NGAS just under $6.00 is a favorable point.
TD waterhouse rates both as
Posted by cwintemute on 12th of Nov 2008 at 11:20 pm
TD waterhouse rates both as holds, lowered price targets & forecasts initial distribution cuts of 10 - 15% in early 2009. With these Canadian trusts you have to review their hedging policies & check your crystal ball for the future $USD/$CDN exchanges.Good luck short or longer term trading terms.
PWE
Posted by califman4u on 12th of Nov 2008 at 10:42 pm
PWE pays their dividend monthly, correct?
PWE Yes, monthly.
Posted by shellysan on 12th of Nov 2008 at 11:17 pm
PWE
Yes, monthly.