Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Aug 2016 at 01:27 pm
Since Mid March the DOW has traded above its 100 MA line.
So, I have looked at days when my own version of a Bollinger Band
indicator was at an extreme oversold condition - a classic
reversion to the mean pullback. In addition, these dates had to
have two additional simple short-term indicators from my 60 min
chart that were both extremely oversold as well on that same day in
order to "confirm" the daily extreme. The exit signal came from
reaching a short-term extremely overbought close on my 60 min
chart. In almost all cases this is also a touch or cross over of
the 9 ema line on a daily chart.
For me this is a classic correlation between the indexes
that occurs many times.
If you apply these trade dates (below) to a 200% leveraged
RUT Long fund (to gain greater movement) you will get a result that
has done 15+% during this time frame - half of that with no
leverage being employed. If you had the intestinal fortitude (I
didn't LOL) to ride the XIV roller coaster for these same trade
dates, you would be up more than 50%.
4-5 to 4-6, 4-7 to 4-12, 4-28 to 5-2, 5-4
to 5-10, 5-13 to 5-16, 6-10 to 6-23, and 6-24 to
6-29.
At the moment these same extremely oversold DOW conditions
exist today that led to the technically based trades described
above. The current 0.33% RSI-2 level is the lowest of 2016 for the
Dow, as is my version of the BB indicator.
sbaxman111 - Although I enjoy reading your analysis, it would be
helpful if you could post some charts as well. For those of
us that are more visually inclined..
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Dow technical data applies to recent reversion trades
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Aug 2016 at 01:27 pm
Since Mid March the DOW has traded above its 100 MA line. So, I have looked at days when my own version of a Bollinger Band indicator was at an extreme oversold condition - a classic reversion to the mean pullback. In addition, these dates had to have two additional simple short-term indicators from my 60 min chart that were both extremely oversold as well on that same day in order to "confirm" the daily extreme. The exit signal came from reaching a short-term extremely overbought close on my 60 min chart. In almost all cases this is also a touch or cross over of the 9 ema line on a daily chart.
For me this is a classic correlation between the indexes that occurs many times.
If you apply these trade dates (below) to a 200% leveraged RUT Long fund (to gain greater movement) you will get a result that has done 15+% during this time frame - half of that with no leverage being employed. If you had the intestinal fortitude (I didn't LOL) to ride the XIV roller coaster for these same trade dates, you would be up more than 50%.
4-5 to 4-6, 4-7 to 4-12, 4-28 to 5-2, 5-4 to 5-10, 5-13 to 5-16, 6-10 to 6-23, and 6-24 to 6-29.
At the moment these same extremely oversold DOW conditions exist today that led to the technically based trades described above. The current 0.33% RSI-2 level is the lowest of 2016 for the Dow, as is my version of the BB indicator.
sbaxman111 - Although I enjoy
Posted by kaap on 2nd of Aug 2016 at 01:52 pm
sbaxman111 - Although I enjoy reading your analysis, it would be helpful if you could post some charts as well. For those of us that are more visually inclined..