Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jun 2016 at 04:54 pm
It only took until about 4:15 today to hear on CNBC that
you "can't time the market" and "I'm a long term investor" retorts
immediately after one guest suggested that "cash was a
position".
I just looked at the 20 worst Dow days in terms of point
losses - which was already updated to include today as the 8th
worst point loss day. I then looked at what the SPX did the day
after these worst Dow days.
Obviously we don't know what next Monday will bring. For
the other 19 big down days the SPX has lost money the next day on 8
occasions. These were -1.61%, -1.18%, -1.35%, -3.94% (8-22-15),
-0.06%, -1.16%, -1.75%, and the worst was -5.02% on
11-6-08.
The day after Black Monday in 1987 (a 22.6% loss) the SPX
eventually gained 5.34% the next day after recovering from losses
early in the day.
Just last week we looked like new all time highs for SPX
might be possible. In 1987 the market had reached its high point in
late August...almost 2 months removed from a high point.
Today I scaled in 25% of my money Long. If history is a
guide based of off the previous 19 worst Dow point days, I look at
my theoretical exposure as 25% of the 5.02% "worst day after"
event. if i can't take that level of loss, I have no business
trading stocks.
"Stay the course" was their mantra of the day. The message
never fluctuates despite a constantly changing world.
Never mentioned is the inherent conflict of interest that exists
between Fidelity and participants in the 401k/profit sharing plans
they administer. Fidelity's management fees are based upon
$$$ invested in the mutual funds they manage. Why would they ever
suggest participants move to cash? It's against their
financial interest.
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It only took until about
As I have posted previously on several occasions I follow ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Jun 2016 at 04:54 pm
It only took until about 4:15 today to hear on CNBC that you "can't time the market" and "I'm a long term investor" retorts immediately after one guest suggested that "cash was a position".
I just looked at the 20 worst Dow days in terms of point losses - which was already updated to include today as the 8th worst point loss day. I then looked at what the SPX did the day after these worst Dow days.
Obviously we don't know what next Monday will bring. For the other 19 big down days the SPX has lost money the next day on 8 occasions. These were -1.61%, -1.18%, -1.35%, -3.94% (8-22-15), -0.06%, -1.16%, -1.75%, and the worst was -5.02% on 11-6-08.
The day after Black Monday in 1987 (a 22.6% loss) the SPX eventually gained 5.34% the next day after recovering from losses early in the day.
Just last week we looked like new all time highs for SPX might be possible. In 1987 the market had reached its high point in late August...almost 2 months removed from a high point.
Today I scaled in 25% of my money Long. If history is a guide based of off the previous 19 worst Dow point days, I look at my theoretical exposure as 25% of the 5.02% "worst day after" event. if i can't take that level of loss, I have no business trading stocks.
Received a similar message from Fidelity Investments
Posted by RichieD on 24th of Jun 2016 at 07:07 pm
"Stay the course" was their mantra of the day. The message never fluctuates despite a constantly changing world.
Never mentioned is the inherent conflict of interest that exists between Fidelity and participants in the 401k/profit sharing plans they administer. Fidelity's management fees are based upon $$$ invested in the mutual funds they manage. Why would they ever suggest participants move to cash? It's against their financial interest.