Happy Independence Day to Britain! And a big shot across the bow
of central planning. Think in terms of dominoes: Japan's recent
efforts have failed; the ECB's have failed; now Britain out;
Janet's very confused and will be left holding Bernanke's bag.
Consensus long equities getting smoked today and Treasuries, Gold
& USD up big. A loss of confidence in Central Banks is going to
play out for a long time. Next step: Spanish elections. Trade the
macro themes off the technicals.
a_l_ -- I think that's a perfect summing up -- I believe
this was a seminal event that will change the position of CBs in
the world -- many dominoes to follow over time -- and I have heard
from a few UK friends who are celebrating their independence, even
one who works in the City.
They will double down on unlimited liquidity, easing and
negative rates -- financial repression. But after 5 years of no
growth in Europe and all of the cultural problems there, risk will
be faded. Italy is down roughly 40% from highs now. Others will
join it.
All that said, watch for the pockets of hope to create more
significant short-covering rallies.
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Happy Independence Day to Britain!
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Jun 2016 at 09:45 am
Happy Independence Day to Britain! And a big shot across the bow of central planning. Think in terms of dominoes: Japan's recent efforts have failed; the ECB's have failed; now Britain out; Janet's very confused and will be left holding Bernanke's bag. Consensus long equities getting smoked today and Treasuries, Gold & USD up big. A loss of confidence in Central Banks is going to play out for a long time. Next step: Spanish elections. Trade the macro themes off the technicals.
a_l_ -- I think that's
Posted by puma on 24th of Jun 2016 at 09:51 am
a_l_ -- I think that's a perfect summing up -- I believe this was a seminal event that will change the position of CBs in the world -- many dominoes to follow over time -- and I have heard from a few UK friends who are celebrating their independence, even one who works in the City.
And don't forget NEXIT (Netherlands)
Posted by wowten on 24th of Jun 2016 at 09:59 am
And don't forget NEXIT (Netherlands) and FREXIT (France) waiting in the wings!
Agree congrats to the Brits.
Spanish elections are this Sunday,
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Jun 2016 at 10:01 am
Spanish elections are this Sunday, as Steve pinned above.
is that the same vote
Posted by a12404 on 24th of Jun 2016 at 10:08 am
is that the same vote to stay in or leave?
No, but it could be
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Jun 2016 at 10:09 am
No, but it could be a prelude based on party reshuffling.
They will double down on
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of Jun 2016 at 09:56 am
They will double down on unlimited liquidity, easing and negative rates -- financial repression. But after 5 years of no growth in Europe and all of the cultural problems there, risk will be faded. Italy is down roughly 40% from highs now. Others will join it.
All that said, watch for the pockets of hope to create more significant short-covering rallies.