The recent RUT move to a daily value above 90% for its' RSI-4 indicator is just the 21st such time that this has happened since the start of 2004. In each case once the reversal started after hitting the peak value (1-4 days once the 90% level was hit), the RUT went below its 9 ema line in 19 of the 20 previous patterns. The 12-10-10 start of the pattern only touched the 9 ema line. Most of these patterns blew thru the 9 ema line during the reversal.

This is the 2nd 90% RSI-4 hit in 2016. The last one peaked after 3 90% days on 3-7-16. There was one in 2015, one in 2014, one in 2013, three in 2012, two in 2011, three in 2010, two in 2009, one in 2007, two in 2006, and one each in 2005 and 2004.

So the statistical odds strongly favor that RUT will hit or trade below the 9 ema line in the near future. 

Yesterday the RUT had an RSI-2 value above 99%. If the RSI-2 value falls from a 90+% level to below the 30% RSI-2 level the following day for any of the RUT, SPX, or NDX, there is also a pretty good statistical chance that the indexes will have a quick short-term reversal. The last time this happened was back on April 20th when there was an RSI-2 drop from the Rut high of 97.57 to an SPX RSI-2 value the next day of 29.42. The RUT reversed the next trading day for a nice one day gain. A similar March 7th high of 99.41% falling to 9.11% in the NDX the next day is another example that produced a short-term reversal the day after the one day drop. The more extreme the one day difference in RSI-2 values is, the higher the statistical probability is for a quick reversal.