The problem right now is that the markets need clearly bad data
so that the 'data dependent' Fed definitively pushes out the dots
to 2016. The risk is that somewhat bad data keeps enough FOMC
voting members thinking "Things aren't so bad and it's just time to
raise rates; let's do it and see what happens." That would likely
be a recessionary trigger and could easily set that 20% correction
that is overdue in motion. And having missed numerous good
opportunities to begin 'normalization', the markets are justified
in being nervous about a badly timed decision in the 2nd half of
this year. SNAFU doesn't even begin to describe our central
planning painted-themselves-into-a-corner Wizards of Oz.
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The problem right now is
Futures spike past overnight highs
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Aug 2015 at 10:31 am
The problem right now is that the markets need clearly bad data so that the 'data dependent' Fed definitively pushes out the dots to 2016. The risk is that somewhat bad data keeps enough FOMC voting members thinking "Things aren't so bad and it's just time to raise rates; let's do it and see what happens." That would likely be a recessionary trigger and could easily set that 20% correction that is overdue in motion. And having missed numerous good opportunities to begin 'normalization', the markets are justified in being nervous about a badly timed decision in the 2nd half of this year. SNAFU doesn't even begin to describe our central planning painted-themselves-into-a-corner Wizards of Oz.