Makes sense. Pros were too bearish coming into this FOMC. That
statement gave them clear room not to raise at all this year (no
way 2% inflation will be hit & jobs are at a peak, not a
takeoff point). Anyone parroting that '2 hikes this year' is
smoking crack.
Agreed. One thing to pay attention to is just how wrong the Fed
forecasts have been & continue to be on GDP & Inflation.
They have been almost 1% too high each year on GDP for 5 straight
years. Not quite as bad on inflation, but still always too high.
They continually revise to lower bad (still too high) estimates,
and that's what pushes the dots out. In the private sector, they
would have needed bailouts many times over.
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Makes sense. Pros were too
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Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Jun 2015 at 11:32 am
Makes sense. Pros were too bearish coming into this FOMC. That statement gave them clear room not to raise at all this year (no way 2% inflation will be hit & jobs are at a peak, not a takeoff point). Anyone parroting that '2 hikes this year' is smoking crack.
I can't see Feds raising
Posted by wowten on 18th of Jun 2015 at 11:40 am
I can't see Feds raising at all. Debt levels are insane. Even a tiny rate increase will have horrendous implications.
Problem is bond markets may eventually force fed hand. Not in short term though.
Agreed. One thing to pay
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Jun 2015 at 11:47 am
Agreed. One thing to pay attention to is just how wrong the Fed forecasts have been & continue to be on GDP & Inflation. They have been almost 1% too high each year on GDP for 5 straight years. Not quite as bad on inflation, but still always too high. They continually revise to lower bad (still too high) estimates, and that's what pushes the dots out. In the private sector, they would have needed bailouts many times over.