The trade worked out just fine. On the 10 min, your stop,
would have been 2 1/2 points, and you made about 2 1/2 points.
The risk on these type of trades is generally 2 - 3 points
only, so to me they are low risk, and the fact that they work out a
good 80 - 90% of the time, they win far more often than they lose.
Also if you are looking for the 1:3 risk/reward ratio, you
don't really get that with these type of trades, but again it's
made up for the fact that most of them win and stops are tight
Thanks for clarification, Matt! I was looking at 15-minute
charts (as per your tutorial), and a 2080 as a target (your pink 9
ema). I believe that 2080 will still be achieved overnight, but I
will not bet on it. Yes, I was looking for a 3:1 ratio, which we
may still get if 2082 is tested.
junkie- here's an update to those trades, nice rally to
the 20 MA, your first target is always the 5 EMA, then the 9 EMA,
then the 20 EMA. I generally like to take 2 - 3 contracts and
scale out of one at the 5, 9, and 20. However this time I
only took 2 and was out by the 9 EMA so price went higher, but good
educational example
when doing these RVM trades on ES, I look for setups on a 5, 10,
and 15 min time frame, best trades come from dojis
Yes, RSI(5) was below 5% on 15-minute charts and below 10% on
two-hour hour charts. Those numbers seem to reliably point to a
successful reversion-to-the-mean trade. An inverted hammer was a
good trigger. I had a day order at 2084.25 on September, which was
not triggering, so I cancelled the trade. Day orders do strange
things on IB, sometimes they trigger out-of-hours and sometimes
they trigger only during the cash hours. I had a buy stop, I
probably should have used a GTC order.
If you see a similar setup again, please make a note on the
blog. Thank you, Matt!
another thing I like to see is the MACD/BB indicator get super
wide like a balloon, that's always a good indication that the trade
will play out, see the chart
okay I have to record this final newsletter
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The trade worked out just
ES 15 min futures
Posted by matt on 14th of Jun 2015 at 07:41 pm
The trade worked out just fine. On the 10 min, your stop, would have been 2 1/2 points, and you made about 2 1/2 points. The risk on these type of trades is generally 2 - 3 points only, so to me they are low risk, and the fact that they work out a good 80 - 90% of the time, they win far more often than they lose. Also if you are looking for the 1:3 risk/reward ratio, you don't really get that with these type of trades, but again it's made up for the fact that most of them win and stops are tight
Thanks for clarification, Matt! I
Posted by junkie on 14th of Jun 2015 at 07:50 pm
Thanks for clarification, Matt! I was looking at 15-minute charts (as per your tutorial), and a 2080 as a target (your pink 9 ema). I believe that 2080 will still be achieved overnight, but I will not bet on it. Yes, I was looking for a 3:1 ratio, which we may still get if 2082 is tested.
junkie- here's an update to
Posted by matt on 14th of Jun 2015 at 08:58 pm
junkie- here's an update to those trades, nice rally to the 20 MA, your first target is always the 5 EMA, then the 9 EMA, then the 20 EMA. I generally like to take 2 - 3 contracts and scale out of one at the 5, 9, and 20. However this time I only took 2 and was out by the 9 EMA so price went higher, but good educational example
when doing these RVM trades on ES, I look for setups on a 5, 10, and 15 min time frame, best trades come from dojis
Yes, RSI(5) was below 5%
Posted by junkie on 14th of Jun 2015 at 09:46 pm
Yes, RSI(5) was below 5% on 15-minute charts and below 10% on two-hour hour charts. Those numbers seem to reliably point to a successful reversion-to-the-mean trade. An inverted hammer was a good trigger. I had a day order at 2084.25 on September, which was not triggering, so I cancelled the trade. Day orders do strange things on IB, sometimes they trigger out-of-hours and sometimes they trigger only during the cash hours. I had a buy stop, I probably should have used a GTC order.
If you see a similar setup again, please make a note on the blog. Thank you, Matt!
another thing I like to
Posted by matt on 14th of Jun 2015 at 09:02 pm
another thing I like to see is the MACD/BB indicator get super wide like a balloon, that's always a good indication that the trade will play out, see the chart
okay I have to record this final newsletter