yes T
orvixthe net short is still high, remember it's used as a
contraian indicator. Last week shows the commercials were net
short 132K. Here's my history chart, now I have not updated
this in a couple months, however lately you can see that it's been
topping out in in the lower to mid 100K range.
Gold Commercials were 112,691 short - 35,273 long = 77,418 net
short in the 5/19 report. Given that the CFTC breaks out or
disaggregates the data and counts options now as well as futures,
the relevant report on the COTs is the Disaggregated Options &
Futures Combined.
My points about the Non-Commercials in gold are:
1) they make up between 30-50% of the market at this point,
depending on whether you want to count just Managed Money or also
Other Reportables & Nonreportables (all are Directional rather
than Hedgers). The Commercials are 23.5% of the open interest at
this point. More control goes with higher open interest.
2) Again, they speculate on price direction and don't typically
deal in physical delivery (Kyle Bass was an exception a while back
for the University of Texas pension), so each of their positions
gets closed out in the end as opposed to just being opened for
delivery. Thus, for the most part, they can affect price twice as
often as hedgers.
3) They can be wrong and have to reverse. When Newmont sells a
ton forward at 1200, it's part of the business plan and they live
with it, hoping to sell more forward higher.
4) Don't trade on COT except as input at extremes. It's lagging
data by almost a week. Just look at it for trends and at extremes
for possible trend reversals.
exactly only use the COT and net short at extremes, other than
that I don't care about it.
the point about the commercials vs non commercials, honestly to
me it tells you the same thing. While commercials tend to be
the most short at highs, at the same time the non commercials are
the most long at highs. So you can use them reversibly
IMO
GDX - Latest...
Posted by saturn6 on 26th of May 2015 at 09:55 am
Sliced through my remaining stops - See if it can bounce from the intra-day lower trend support and from outside the Daily BB's...
GLD gap filled
Posted by wowten on 26th of May 2015 at 10:18 am
GLD gap filled
Im looking for new lows now, COT's very short
Posted by torvix on 26th of May 2015 at 10:01 am
yes T orvix the net short is
Posted by matt on 26th of May 2015 at 10:14 am
yes T orvix the net short is still high, remember it's used as a contraian indicator. Last week shows the commercials were net short 132K. Here's my history chart, now I have not updated this in a couple months, however lately you can see that it's been topping out in in the lower to mid 100K range.
Thanks - according to the COT data the commercial net shorts
Posted by torvix on 26th of May 2015 at 10:57 am
Are 132,334 net short
140K less 273K
Gold Commercials were 112,691 short
Posted by a_l_ on 26th of May 2015 at 11:43 am
Gold Commercials were 112,691 short - 35,273 long = 77,418 net short in the 5/19 report. Given that the CFTC breaks out or disaggregates the data and counts options now as well as futures, the relevant report on the COTs is the Disaggregated Options & Futures Combined.
My points about the Non-Commercials in gold are:
1) they make up between 30-50% of the market at this point, depending on whether you want to count just Managed Money or also Other Reportables & Nonreportables (all are Directional rather than Hedgers). The Commercials are 23.5% of the open interest at this point. More control goes with higher open interest.
2) Again, they speculate on price direction and don't typically deal in physical delivery (Kyle Bass was an exception a while back for the University of Texas pension), so each of their positions gets closed out in the end as opposed to just being opened for delivery. Thus, for the most part, they can affect price twice as often as hedgers.
3) They can be wrong and have to reverse. When Newmont sells a ton forward at 1200, it's part of the business plan and they live with it, hoping to sell more forward higher.
4) Don't trade on COT except as input at extremes. It's lagging data by almost a week. Just look at it for trends and at extremes for possible trend reversals.
exactly only use the COT
Posted by matt on 26th of May 2015 at 11:51 am
exactly only use the COT and net short at extremes, other than that I don't care about it.
the point about the commercials vs non commercials, honestly to me it tells you the same thing. While commercials tend to be the most short at highs, at the same time the non commercials are the most long at highs. So you can use them reversibly IMO
Agreed. I would put the
Posted by a_l_ on 26th of May 2015 at 11:53 am
Agreed. I would put the marginal 'fuel' to price on the speculative side, though.