Steve: attached is a 2-hr SPX chart. Where I have the circle, we
are almost finished with a 3-bar backtest confirmation of the break
below the uptrend line. My understanding from your approach is that
at 2 pm when the current candle closes, it acts as confirmation if
it's a neutral to bearish type of candle, right? I am looking for
an objective short since the market has broken the uptrend
line.
The first 10 ten days of April are, on average, flat, according
to data I posted a few days ago. That plus your overall analysis
has me very cautious here, and looking for a low risk trade.
The 3 bar is a confirmation break out or breakdown..so you can
take short and look for confirmation later but it's really not as
relevant here. Understand?
Ah, I think I am mixed up. SPX is not backtesting the first
break of this trendline - it had already broken it then regained it
once. So, as Rosanna Rosannadana would say, never mind!
Roger...as I stated below on the move up to 2073 was an
objective area to hedge/short. Objective does not guarantee but the
SPX pulled back over 10 pts from that point which matches your
trendline resistance. Project, monitor, and adjust in accordance
with YOUR OBJECTIVES (that includes profit goals, trading time
frames, etc).
Steve: attached is a 2-hr
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 12:54 pm
Steve: attached is a 2-hr SPX chart. Where I have the circle, we are almost finished with a 3-bar backtest confirmation of the break below the uptrend line. My understanding from your approach is that at 2 pm when the current candle closes, it acts as confirmation if it's a neutral to bearish type of candle, right? I am looking for an objective short since the market has broken the uptrend line.
The first 10 ten days of April are, on average, flat, according to data I posted a few days ago. That plus your overall analysis has me very cautious here, and looking for a low risk trade.
Roger
The 3 bar is a
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:26 pm
The 3 bar is a confirmation break out or breakdown..so you can take short and look for confirmation later but it's really not as relevant here. Understand?
I think so - because
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:32 pm
I think so - because it's been too long since the original breakout for this to be the backtest.
Roger..I'm not following your last
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:39 pm
Roger..I'm not following your last statement..post and chart with comments displaying what exactly you mean. Backtest's are not limited by time.
Roger..I'm not following your last
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:39 pm
Roger..I'm not following your last statement..post and chart with comments displaying what exactly you mean. Backtest's are not limited by time.
Ah, I think I am
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:46 pm
Ah, I think I am mixed up. SPX is not backtesting the first break of this trendline - it had already broken it then regained it once. So, as Rosanna Rosannadana would say, never mind!
Roger...as I stated below on
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:06 pm
Roger...as I stated below on the move up to 2073 was an objective area to hedge/short. Objective does not guarantee but the SPX pulled back over 10 pts from that point which matches your trendline resistance. Project, monitor, and adjust in accordance with YOUR OBJECTIVES (that includes profit goals, trading time frames, etc).
Also, I traded the morning
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:27 pm
Also, I traded the morning high successfully for a short trade, but that was off a 5 minute chart, and I closed that.
Well done..best to shift down
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:28 pm
Well done..best to shift down to a smaller time frame once in the trade unless you are a pure swing trader.
Sure. But also trying to
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Apr 2015 at 01:24 pm
Sure. But also trying to make sure I understand the 3-bar back test approach you have taught.