yes it bought too early, but if it has a 90% win rate then 10%
will be losing trades, it hasn't had a bad trade in a really long
time, so it was probably due - I've discussed this. It's
simple math and we all know that reversion to mean systems where
they can get caught sometimes is buying too early on a pullback.
Remember reversion to mean systems buy pullbacks in uptrends
and short rallies in downtrends, similar to a Larry Connors trading
concept (google that). I have a lot of filters in place that
try to prevent this but you can't filter out everything.
system trading or any trading for that matter is like death and
taxes, expect to have some losing trades, it's going to happen.
And with a system with 90% winning trades 1 out of 10 will be
losing trades.
Had you been here taking all the trades last year that were sent
out you would have ample profits, the SPY system make almost 30%
last year, so a losing trade would not make you emotional.
Now if this is your first trade, then it's frustrating, but
that's how systems are, you never know when the losing trade will
occur.
Also system trades are to be trading as a percentage of your
account only, NOT 50% or 100%. You should also be taking
trades from the watchlist and the newsletters - had you taken some
of the inverse ETF's over the last week those would have offset
this SPY system trade. Also the SPY Ver 2 system bought
YESTERDAY, so it allowed you to average lower. The DVY system
may go long today
Guys I know the trade sucks so far but I would appreciate if you
look at things logically vs from an emotional standpoint.
Matt, it sounds like you think the system will close a losing
trade on this position? What sucks is that with the losses already
in this trade, it would essentially negate all of the gains for the
year (at this point).
yes it bought too early,
? on SPY PRO SYSTEM
Posted by matt on 1st of Aug 2014 at 11:49 am
yes it bought too early, but if it has a 90% win rate then 10% will be losing trades, it hasn't had a bad trade in a really long time, so it was probably due - I've discussed this. It's simple math and we all know that reversion to mean systems where they can get caught sometimes is buying too early on a pullback. Remember reversion to mean systems buy pullbacks in uptrends and short rallies in downtrends, similar to a Larry Connors trading concept (google that). I have a lot of filters in place that try to prevent this but you can't filter out everything.
system trading or any trading for that matter is like death and taxes, expect to have some losing trades, it's going to happen. And with a system with 90% winning trades 1 out of 10 will be losing trades.
Had you been here taking all the trades last year that were sent out you would have ample profits, the SPY system make almost 30% last year, so a losing trade would not make you emotional. Now if this is your first trade, then it's frustrating, but that's how systems are, you never know when the losing trade will occur.
Also system trades are to be trading as a percentage of your account only, NOT 50% or 100%. You should also be taking trades from the watchlist and the newsletters - had you taken some of the inverse ETF's over the last week those would have offset this SPY system trade. Also the SPY Ver 2 system bought YESTERDAY, so it allowed you to average lower. The DVY system may go long today
Guys I know the trade sucks so far but I would appreciate if you look at things logically vs from an emotional standpoint.
Confidence
Posted by zpbsfg on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:14 pm
Matt, it sounds like you think the system will close a losing trade on this position? What sucks is that with the losses already in this trade, it would essentially negate all of the gains for the year (at this point).
Matt, Please keep posting the SPY
Posted by swh13 on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:22 pm
Matt,
Please keep posting the SPY system signals!
Thanks!
zpbsfg..it can snapback so let's
Posted by steve on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:20 pm
zpbsfg..it can snapback so let's see how things unfold. Trade your plan..there have been numerous shorts that would have produced big profits as well.