yes
jsliedre, on
SPY Pro it's 10.5%, same for Ver 2, and it's 9.5% on SPY RSI 2, and
a
very tight 4%on DVY RSI 2 system
those are hard catastrophic stops, clearly other stops can come
into place well before hand, however those are dynamic and
constantly change and so I communicate those with you as they
occur
one thing to consider guys on the systems like the SPY Pro.
I always tell folks, if you are going to play them, don't
just play the SPY Pro by itself, play them all. Because what
happens sometimes is that one of the systems does better than the
others like this time, the SPY Pro entered too early, however the
SPY Ver 2 will go long today, so it will get a much better price
and allow you to average down. The DVY system has a very
tight 4% stop. So play them all, not just one. And of course
dont' play your whole account with systems.
And also play some of our trade setups, we've had very nice
ones, and some good shorts recently. So if you had some SPY
Pro, you would have nice trades in shorts to offset it.
anyway this is what I consider the best way to do if you can.
And regarding systems, it is easy to get emotional about
them, I know that all too well, but also accept there will be
losing trades, just a part of any system.
I do find it pretty frustrating how wrong the SPY PRO system was
on this trade. I guess, yes, you do recommend doing Ver 2 as well
at the same time. But your track record on SPY PRO is supposedly so
good, (around 90%) that should it matter that much?
It looks to me that SPY PRO picked essentially the WORST
POSSIBLE day in the last 6 months to go long.
yes it bought too early, but if it has a 90% win rate then 10%
will be losing trades, it hasn't had a bad trade in a really long
time, so it was probably due - I've discussed this. It's
simple math and we all know that reversion to mean systems where
they can get caught sometimes is buying too early on a pullback.
Remember reversion to mean systems buy pullbacks in uptrends
and short rallies in downtrends, similar to a Larry Connors trading
concept (google that). I have a lot of filters in place that
try to prevent this but you can't filter out everything.
system trading or any trading for that matter is like death and
taxes, expect to have some losing trades, it's going to happen.
And with a system with 90% winning trades 1 out of 10 will be
losing trades.
Had you been here taking all the trades last year that were sent
out you would have ample profits, the SPY system make almost 30%
last year, so a losing trade would not make you emotional.
Now if this is your first trade, then it's frustrating, but
that's how systems are, you never know when the losing trade will
occur.
Also system trades are to be trading as a percentage of your
account only, NOT 50% or 100%. You should also be taking
trades from the watchlist and the newsletters - had you taken some
of the inverse ETF's over the last week those would have offset
this SPY system trade. Also the SPY Ver 2 system bought
YESTERDAY, so it allowed you to average lower. The DVY system
may go long today
Guys I know the trade sucks so far but I would appreciate if you
look at things logically vs from an emotional standpoint.
Matt, it sounds like you think the system will close a losing
trade on this position? What sucks is that with the losses already
in this trade, it would essentially negate all of the gains for the
year (at this point).
Diversifying includes hedging or shorting when the market
suggests as I pointed out recently. Clearly, there have not
been too many valid long setups lately. That is
telling.
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Isn't there a 10% stop for
? on SPY PRO SYSTEM
Posted by jsliedre on 31st of Jul 2014 at 11:12 am
Isn't there a 10% stop for the SpyPro?
yes jsliedre, on SPY Pro it's 10.5%, same
Posted by matt on 31st of Jul 2014 at 11:19 am
yes jsliedre, on SPY Pro it's 10.5%, same for Ver 2, and it's 9.5% on SPY RSI 2, and a very tight 4% on DVY RSI 2 system
those are hard catastrophic stops, clearly other stops can come into place well before hand, however those are dynamic and constantly change and so I communicate those with you as they occur
one thing to consider guys
Posted by matt on 31st of Jul 2014 at 12:48 pm
one thing to consider guys on the systems like the SPY Pro. I always tell folks, if you are going to play them, don't just play the SPY Pro by itself, play them all. Because what happens sometimes is that one of the systems does better than the others like this time, the SPY Pro entered too early, however the SPY Ver 2 will go long today, so it will get a much better price and allow you to average down. The DVY system has a very tight 4% stop. So play them all, not just one. And of course dont' play your whole account with systems.
And also play some of our trade setups, we've had very nice ones, and some good shorts recently. So if you had some SPY Pro, you would have nice trades in shorts to offset it.
anyway this is what I consider the best way to do if you can. And regarding systems, it is easy to get emotional about them, I know that all too well, but also accept there will be losing trades, just a part of any system.
Title: ...but isn't SPY PRO
Posted by qualz on 1st of Aug 2014 at 11:28 am
I do find it pretty frustrating how wrong the SPY PRO system was on this trade. I guess, yes, you do recommend doing Ver 2 as well at the same time. But your track record on SPY PRO is supposedly so good, (around 90%) that should it matter that much?
It looks to me that SPY PRO picked essentially the WORST POSSIBLE day in the last 6 months to go long.
yes it bought too early,
Posted by matt on 1st of Aug 2014 at 11:49 am
yes it bought too early, but if it has a 90% win rate then 10% will be losing trades, it hasn't had a bad trade in a really long time, so it was probably due - I've discussed this. It's simple math and we all know that reversion to mean systems where they can get caught sometimes is buying too early on a pullback. Remember reversion to mean systems buy pullbacks in uptrends and short rallies in downtrends, similar to a Larry Connors trading concept (google that). I have a lot of filters in place that try to prevent this but you can't filter out everything.
system trading or any trading for that matter is like death and taxes, expect to have some losing trades, it's going to happen. And with a system with 90% winning trades 1 out of 10 will be losing trades.
Had you been here taking all the trades last year that were sent out you would have ample profits, the SPY system make almost 30% last year, so a losing trade would not make you emotional. Now if this is your first trade, then it's frustrating, but that's how systems are, you never know when the losing trade will occur.
Also system trades are to be trading as a percentage of your account only, NOT 50% or 100%. You should also be taking trades from the watchlist and the newsletters - had you taken some of the inverse ETF's over the last week those would have offset this SPY system trade. Also the SPY Ver 2 system bought YESTERDAY, so it allowed you to average lower. The DVY system may go long today
Guys I know the trade sucks so far but I would appreciate if you look at things logically vs from an emotional standpoint.
Confidence
Posted by zpbsfg on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:14 pm
Matt, it sounds like you think the system will close a losing trade on this position? What sucks is that with the losses already in this trade, it would essentially negate all of the gains for the year (at this point).
Matt, Please keep posting the SPY
Posted by swh13 on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:22 pm
Matt,
Please keep posting the SPY system signals!
Thanks!
zpbsfg..it can snapback so let's
Posted by steve on 1st of Aug 2014 at 12:20 pm
zpbsfg..it can snapback so let's see how things unfold. Trade your plan..there have been numerous shorts that would have produced big profits as well.
Gar-on-teed!
Posted by a_l_ on 1st of Aug 2014 at 11:42 am
Gar-on-teed!
Will any of the other
Posted by sbwoman on 31st of Jul 2014 at 02:43 pm
Will any of the other systems, besides the SPY V. 2 will go long today??
Guys, make sure to click
Posted by matt on 31st of Jul 2014 at 11:16 am
Guys, make sure to click around on all parts of the website so that you know where things are. Stops and other information has always been in place,
SPY Pro system overview page - Click here, a hard stop is listed as well as other indformation
SPY Ver 2 system - CLICK HERE - hard stop and other information is listed
SPY RSI 2 system - Click HER E
Any of the other systems
Posted by swh13 on 31st of Jul 2014 at 11:45 am
Any of the other systems (SPY Ver 2, SPY RSI 2, DVY, etc) getting close to long buy signals? Diversity helps!
Diversifying includes hedging or shorting
Posted by steve on 31st of Jul 2014 at 11:46 am
Diversifying includes hedging or shorting when the market suggests as I pointed out recently. Clearly, there have not been too many valid long setups lately. That is telling.