At the beginning of 1996 there was the start of the last
accelaration and exaggeration phase in the SPX. 5 years later in
the year 2000 there was a significant top and a 2 year bear
market. After again a 5 year rally and a 2 year bear. At the moment
we have been exactly 5 years (well... maybe lacking one or two
months...) in this bull market.
But to get this really going, we need more than just lousy
economic numbers.
No, someone will have to really crap the bed to kick off this
one.
China debt default, Euro loses a member or kicks one out for
defaulting.
Then the next war might get started. The interesting thing is,
this will very likely involve two or more opposing forces armed
with deliverable nuclear weapons.
If that were to develop, then a new paradigm of crisis.
here a chart of ABX (gold stock) relative to SPX. green lines
are the bull markets in stocks (each 5 years), red line
the bear markets in stocks (2 years each) see chart in earlier
posting.
My point is that in the next two years gold stocks are likely
going to outperform SPX. Turning points in the ABX/SPX ratio
are not the same as turning points in the stock market. So it could
well be that the ratio set the low already in october. But could
also be that stocks are topping now and the ratio low will be
later in the year, which would mean another nasty breakdown in gold
stocks.
Personally I think that gold stocks have bottomed and offer a
nice opportunity for the next two years.... relative to SPX... and
probably relative to lots of other investments
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SPX monthly - timing
Posted by zwyss on 2nd of Feb 2014 at 07:40 am
At the beginning of 1996 there was the start of the last accelaration and exaggeration phase in the SPX. 5 years later in the year 2000 there was a significant top and a 2 year bear market. After again a 5 year rally and a 2 year bear. At the moment we have been exactly 5 years (well... maybe lacking one or two months...) in this bull market.
2 years of bear ahead?
Well, both two and five
Posted by cubby on 2nd of Feb 2014 at 11:51 pm
Well, both two and five are Fibonacci numbers.
But to get this really going, we need more than just lousy economic numbers.
No, someone will have to really crap the bed to kick off this one.
China debt default, Euro loses a member or kicks one out for defaulting.
Then the next war might get started. The interesting thing is, this will very likely involve two or more opposing forces armed with deliverable nuclear weapons.
If that were to develop, then a new paradigm of crisis.
SPX and gold stocks
Posted by zwyss on 2nd of Feb 2014 at 11:27 am
an addition to my posting earlier:
here a chart of ABX (gold stock) relative to SPX. green lines are the bull markets in stocks (each 5 years), red line the bear markets in stocks (2 years each) see chart in earlier posting.
My point is that in the next two years gold stocks are likely going to outperform SPX. Turning points in the ABX/SPX ratio are not the same as turning points in the stock market. So it could well be that the ratio set the low already in october. But could also be that stocks are topping now and the ratio low will be later in the year, which would mean another nasty breakdown in gold stocks.
Personally I think that gold stocks have bottomed and offer a nice opportunity for the next two years.... relative to SPX... and probably relative to lots of other investments