Matt and Steve, the latest analysis from John Murphy at
Stockcharts (open for all BPT members I suppose) is very clear and
compelling. Its about 2014, the presidential cycle and a new
secular bull market. It would be very interesting to hear your
views about this analysis.
Lebow..John's analysis is presented well. I particularly like
the last 4/5 sentences in paragraph 5 where he discusses seasonal
tendencies but the need to use technical indicators/price action to
spot important turn (inflection points) in the market. Simply put,
he is suggesting to look for EVIDENCE. As far as cycles, there is
also an approximate (and very reliable) two year technology cycle
that is over extended.
As I stated two weeks ago the technicals were suggesting some
caution. Topping is normally a process and thus I look for evidence
(price action and patterns, along with indicators, and finally
sentiment). The presidential cycle currently lines up fairly well
with the mapping of this advance. My advice is to keep a clear head
and respect the market's action.
Steve, tnx for the frank and generous (to Murphy) answer,
especially in the weekend newsletter. This is what I really
appreciate with BPT: Deep knowledge and insights, no dogmas,
step-by-step approach with an open mind to always change stance.
Great job guys!
it is my understanding that in year 2 of this cycle (2014), the
norm is an average of a ~ 20% correction during the calendar
year (at which time a great buying opportunity presents
itself). An article in Barrons this weekend focusing on
Ned Davis noted this stat. good trading
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Compelling analysis
Posted by lebow on 15th of Dec 2013 at 05:52 am
Matt and Steve, the latest analysis from John Murphy at Stockcharts (open for all BPT members I suppose) is very clear and compelling. Its about 2014, the presidential cycle and a new secular bull market. It would be very interesting to hear your views about this analysis.
http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20131214-1.html
Lebow..John's analysis is presented well.
Posted by steve on 15th of Dec 2013 at 10:00 am
Lebow..John's analysis is presented well. I particularly like the last 4/5 sentences in paragraph 5 where he discusses seasonal tendencies but the need to use technical indicators/price action to spot important turn (inflection points) in the market. Simply put, he is suggesting to look for EVIDENCE. As far as cycles, there is also an approximate (and very reliable) two year technology cycle that is over extended.
As I stated two weeks ago the technicals were suggesting some caution. Topping is normally a process and thus I look for evidence (price action and patterns, along with indicators, and finally sentiment). The presidential cycle currently lines up fairly well with the mapping of this advance. My advice is to keep a clear head and respect the market's action.
Steve, tnx for the frank
Posted by lebow on 15th of Dec 2013 at 11:46 am
Steve, tnx for the frank and generous (to Murphy) answer, especially in the weekend newsletter. This is what I really appreciate with BPT: Deep knowledge and insights, no dogmas, step-by-step approach with an open mind to always change stance. Great job guys!
presidential cycle
Posted by hazbin1 on 15th of Dec 2013 at 10:07 am
it is my understanding that in year 2 of this cycle (2014), the norm is an average of a ~ 20% correction during the calendar year (at which time a great buying opportunity presents itself). An article in Barrons this weekend focusing on Ned Davis noted this stat. good trading