Tony Caldaro has been calling this bull market very well for
years now (when it wasn't a popular call). Keep in mind he
has "late winter/early spring" as his target for how long it goes.
Also, he has 1740-1779 as his final target -- has had that
for months (somebody might correct me on that).
That is only 35 points (2%) and 3-5 months away. In fact,
today reached his lower limit.
I haven't really been bearish in a while, but I will say, the
ending diagonal option is not very popular right now. If we
do get some kind of harsh reversal in the next hours/days from this
area (or even 1750ish), followed by some impulsive selling, it will
look quite bearish on many fronts. But that is predicted
hindsight. All we know now is $SPX is at the top of a well
formed wedge (months); $VIX hit support and is bouncing hard; there
is a parabolic mania in certain sectors (countries/companies that
don't make money), while big money making companies are configured
in a bearish fashion (slopes of daily MA) and have seen multi-year
distribution at highs (IBM, MCD, XOM, CVX).
Wouldn't short anything on this observation, but if we have a
weak close, a decent chance that we gap off it over the weekend and
create an exhaustion gap in the $NDX.
Add this to the list, today (well this evening) was a full moon
and op-ex on the same day.
And the volatility of the vix this past four weeks was very
strange. First, vix closes higher on a day the market notches a new
all-time high. Yet with vix under 13 for most of the day; somehow,
it still did not close outside the Bollinger Band. Now that's
volatility in the vix!
In fact, since four weeks ago today, the vix has traveled
round-trip, the same range (12-1/2 to 21+ and back again) as it
needed almost ten weeks to cover in summer.
I dunno how many times a new all-time high was achieved on a day
that vix closed higher than the open, but this must be rare indeed.
It may be Halloween weirdness starting early!
Indeed. The Dow has played out like he thought the SPX
would. Often targets from a long ways away eventually get
hit, but timing is an issue. Wondering if his bull market
highs are getting hit, while his timing is off? Keep in mind,
like most people, he doesn't get the tops or bottoms perfectly...
and I don't think it really concerns him. But seeing his
target get hit today, while VIX makes a strong reversal makes me
wonder.
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Caldaro 1779 bull market target
Posted by kalinm on 18th of Oct 2013 at 02:14 pm
Tony Caldaro has been calling this bull market very well for years now (when it wasn't a popular call). Keep in mind he has "late winter/early spring" as his target for how long it goes. Also, he has 1740-1779 as his final target -- has had that for months (somebody might correct me on that).
That is only 35 points (2%) and 3-5 months away. In fact, today reached his lower limit.
I haven't really been bearish in a while, but I will say, the ending diagonal option is not very popular right now. If we do get some kind of harsh reversal in the next hours/days from this area (or even 1750ish), followed by some impulsive selling, it will look quite bearish on many fronts. But that is predicted hindsight. All we know now is $SPX is at the top of a well formed wedge (months); $VIX hit support and is bouncing hard; there is a parabolic mania in certain sectors (countries/companies that don't make money), while big money making companies are configured in a bearish fashion (slopes of daily MA) and have seen multi-year distribution at highs (IBM, MCD, XOM, CVX).
Wouldn't short anything on this
Posted by kalinm on 18th of Oct 2013 at 03:22 pm
Wouldn't short anything on this observation, but if we have a weak close, a decent chance that we gap off it over the weekend and create an exhaustion gap in the $NDX.
Add this to the list,
Posted by cubby on 18th of Oct 2013 at 04:50 pm
Add this to the list, today (well this evening) was a full moon and op-ex on the same day.
And the volatility of the vix this past four weeks was very strange. First, vix closes higher on a day the market notches a new all-time high. Yet with vix under 13 for most of the day; somehow, it still did not close outside the Bollinger Band. Now that's volatility in the vix!
In fact, since four weeks ago today, the vix has traveled round-trip, the same range (12-1/2 to 21+ and back again) as it needed almost ten weeks to cover in summer.
I dunno how many times a new all-time high was achieved on a day that vix closed higher than the open, but this must be rare indeed. It may be Halloween weirdness starting early!
It seems to me he
Posted by john9o9 on 18th of Oct 2013 at 03:18 pm
It seems to me he has been caliing for more of a pull back then we have seen this year though? he seems more surprised by the strength than anything?
Indeed. The Dow has played
Posted by kalinm on 18th of Oct 2013 at 03:21 pm
Indeed. The Dow has played out like he thought the SPX would. Often targets from a long ways away eventually get hit, but timing is an issue. Wondering if his bull market highs are getting hit, while his timing is off? Keep in mind, like most people, he doesn't get the tops or bottoms perfectly... and I don't think it really concerns him. But seeing his target get hit today, while VIX makes a strong reversal makes me wonder.