Posted by pepperwu on 11th of Sep 2008 at 07:03 am
According to this bloomberg article... The Fed has created the
situation where people entering contracts with Lehman as a
counterparty would prefer for Lehman to fail so that the counter
party in effect becomes the Fed
Joyous Loathing at Lehman Brothers'
Collapse: Michael Lewis
A few minutes after Bloomberg News posted the piece, it was the
most-read news of the day, and Lehman's
shareswent into a free fall. Fifteen minutes later they had
lost almost half their value.
What's interesting, among other things, is the total lack of
reflection in the markets. Who had heard of the Korean Development
Bank? Who knew what it did, or whether the people inside it were
shrewd assessors of subprime-mortgage portfolios?
Basically no one, I'd guess. And yet a single report from an
unnamed person inside Lehman that some Koreans had considered, and
then passed on, investing in the firm was enough to cause the
shares to crash.
And all that had really happened was that KBD proved it may have
finally grasped what should be for Asians a cardinal investment
principle: Never buy anything an American investment banker is
selling.
Lehman Doomed
What one can see from this event is that Lehman Brothers is
doomed. It's doomed, in part, because it still owns all sorts of
crappy assets at inflated prices.
It holds tens of billions of dollars in subprime-related assets
of the sort Merrill Lynch & Co. just disgorged at 22 cents on
the dollar. But that's probably just the beginning.
There's no happy reason they haven't explained in detail their
exposure to credit-default swaps. No one -- not its big investors,
not the analysts and journalists who cover it, not even, perhaps,
the Korean Development Bank -- has had a clear view of its assets
and liabilities.
This opacity was once a huge advantage: the people outside
assumed the best. It's now an even bigger disadvantage: people
outside assume the worst.
But Lehman is doomed for another reason: People are enjoying its
failure. The pleasure and interest the markets now take in seeing
it fail now exceeds their pleasure and interest in seeing it
survive.
Interest in Failure
This is one of the many unintended little side effects of the
government bailout of Bear Stearns Cos.: to greatly reduce the
interest of the people who do business with Lehman Brothers in the
survival of Lehman Brothers.
All those people whose affairs are intertwined with Lehman might
have pressured them to handle their problems more briskly and
intelligently -- and might also be trying to keep it afloat. The
U.S. government has made it possible for them to instead stand back
and watch with some detachment and even pleasure as Lehman
collapses.
After all, the Federal Reserve will give them their money back,
re-insure their credit defaults, take another pile of these
distressed assets out of the market. And when the dust settles they
can go in and poach Lehman's business and its smarter
employees.
The Bear Stearns bailout was supposed to prevent the crisis from
rippling through Wall Street. Obviously it hasn't done that. It's
merely thrown the crisis into slow motion and prolonged the
agony.
And it's given the Korean Development Bank whole new powers.
(
Michael Lewisis a Bloomberg News columnist and the author, most
recently, of ``The Blind Side.'' The opinions expressed are his
own.)
People want Lehman to fail
Clearer S&P 15 min chart
Posted by pepperwu on 11th of Sep 2008 at 07:03 am
According to this bloomberg article... The Fed has created the situation where people entering contracts with Lehman as a counterparty would prefer for Lehman to fail so that the counter party in effect becomes the Fed
Joyous Loathing at Lehman Brothers' Collapse: Michael Lewis
Commentary by Michael Lewis
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg)-- To see the mental state of financial markets at the moment you need only to sit at a computer with an Internet connection and watch investors respond to journalism.
On Tuesday morning Bloomberg News quoted an unidentified person inside Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.saying his firm had tried and failed to raise capital from the Korean Development Bank. This report came on the heels of an earlier one by Dow Jones in which a named person who regulated the Korean Development Bank denied such a thing had happened -- but no matter.
A few minutes after Bloomberg News posted the piece, it was the most-read news of the day, and Lehman's shareswent into a free fall. Fifteen minutes later they had lost almost half their value.
What's interesting, among other things, is the total lack of reflection in the markets. Who had heard of the Korean Development Bank? Who knew what it did, or whether the people inside it were shrewd assessors of subprime-mortgage portfolios?
Basically no one, I'd guess. And yet a single report from an unnamed person inside Lehman that some Koreans had considered, and then passed on, investing in the firm was enough to cause the shares to crash.
And all that had really happened was that KBD proved it may have finally grasped what should be for Asians a cardinal investment principle: Never buy anything an American investment banker is selling.
Lehman Doomed
What one can see from this event is that Lehman Brothers is doomed. It's doomed, in part, because it still owns all sorts of crappy assets at inflated prices.
It holds tens of billions of dollars in subprime-related assets of the sort Merrill Lynch & Co. just disgorged at 22 cents on the dollar. But that's probably just the beginning.
There's no happy reason they haven't explained in detail their exposure to credit-default swaps. No one -- not its big investors, not the analysts and journalists who cover it, not even, perhaps, the Korean Development Bank -- has had a clear view of its assets and liabilities.
This opacity was once a huge advantage: the people outside assumed the best. It's now an even bigger disadvantage: people outside assume the worst.
But Lehman is doomed for another reason: People are enjoying its failure. The pleasure and interest the markets now take in seeing it fail now exceeds their pleasure and interest in seeing it survive.
Interest in Failure
This is one of the many unintended little side effects of the government bailout of Bear Stearns Cos.: to greatly reduce the interest of the people who do business with Lehman Brothers in the survival of Lehman Brothers.
All those people whose affairs are intertwined with Lehman might have pressured them to handle their problems more briskly and intelligently -- and might also be trying to keep it afloat. The U.S. government has made it possible for them to instead stand back and watch with some detachment and even pleasure as Lehman collapses.
After all, the Federal Reserve will give them their money back, re-insure their credit defaults, take another pile of these distressed assets out of the market. And when the dust settles they can go in and poach Lehman's business and its smarter employees.
The Bear Stearns bailout was supposed to prevent the crisis from rippling through Wall Street. Obviously it hasn't done that. It's merely thrown the crisis into slow motion and prolonged the agony.
And it's given the Korean Development Bank whole new powers.
( Michael Lewisis a Bloomberg News columnist and the author, most recently, of ``The Blind Side.'' The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Michael Lewis at mlewis1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 11, 2008 00:04 EDT