This market bottomed in October 2002 in the last bear whereas
the bear is viewed as having lasted longer in the US through to
2003. Australian market was decimated from shorting in Jan
08.
The bearish views are so thick in the air at the moment - I'm in
London - that I could almost slice it with a knife. M&A
is dead quiet and fund issues are quiet as well. People are
saying the next 2 years are going to be horrible. On a
contrarian indicator its almost a buy indictator. Some
indication there are plans to buy big into financials.
Certainly, you have to wonder why the market can hold its
losses to 1% for most the day when Lehman is down 30+
percent.
Posted by treid4dou on 10th of Sep 2008 at 12:40 am
The mkt is currently moving more on real low liquidity issues,
high insolvency risks, no credit, and huge losses. So sentiment, in
which i strongly believe, may be still optimistic......i found the
vix still very low.....so not real fear out there......
Posted by pepperwu on 10th of Sep 2008 at 05:19 am
The hypothesis is that non-US markets may start ignoring what is
hapenning in the US (and also the UK) and start moving ahead.
If that happens then any further moves down in the US would
arguably be tempered.
In the US, the selloffs so far have been extreme in financials,
its arguable that the retail investors are gone from the
market. Really, short of a crash, are we not going to see a
tempered downward path. Who is left to sell up? As an example
Merrills is trading at $24 rather than $90. How much further
do you want shares like this to go? Are they worth nothing?
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Australia
Posted by pepperwu on 9th of Sep 2008 at 10:52 pm
Some evidence this market has already bottomed (^AXJO - http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EAXJO#chart1:symbol=^axjo;range=2y;indicator=sma(50,150)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined) - market has not moved in last two months and some flattening of MAs.
This market bottomed in October 2002 in the last bear whereas the bear is viewed as having lasted longer in the US through to 2003. Australian market was decimated from shorting in Jan 08.
The bearish views are so thick in the air at the moment - I'm in London - that I could almost slice it with a knife. M&A is dead quiet and fund issues are quiet as well. People are saying the next 2 years are going to be horrible. On a contrarian indicator its almost a buy indictator. Some indication there are plans to buy big into financials. Certainly, you have to wonder why the market can hold its losses to 1% for most the day when Lehman is down 30+ percent.
The mkt is currently moving
Posted by treid4dou on 10th of Sep 2008 at 12:40 am
The mkt is currently moving more on real low liquidity issues, high insolvency risks, no credit, and huge losses. So sentiment, in which i strongly believe, may be still optimistic......i found the vix still very low.....so not real fear out there......
The hypothesis is that non-US
Posted by pepperwu on 10th of Sep 2008 at 05:19 am
The hypothesis is that non-US markets may start ignoring what is hapenning in the US (and also the UK) and start moving ahead. If that happens then any further moves down in the US would arguably be tempered.
In the US, the selloffs so far have been extreme in financials, its arguable that the retail investors are gone from the market. Really, short of a crash, are we not going to see a tempered downward path. Who is left to sell up? As an example Merrills is trading at $24 rather than $90. How much further do you want shares like this to go? Are they worth nothing?