fair point -- I had a tutorial with Steve and he is
straightening me out. I don't have too much of an opinion on
the dollar, I only deduced that a weaker dollar would likely be the
cause of an advance in copper. The main point of those charts
was that copper gapped down to major support on Monday (as did FCX)
and both held -- in fact FCX led. All this with a continued
strong dollar -- this rally in FCX might have legs.
I think it is good that you call it as you see it, as it makes
me look at things in another perspective. None of us get
it right all the time. I appreciate all your work and
the fact that you take the time to share it. Many different
views are healthy, and provides good insight for all of us.
Thanks.
Thanks wowten. Yes, I've missed the boat on most of this
bull market. Mind you, part of the reason was because I
knocked it out of the park in 2008, and pretty much this whole time
have been expecting the other shoe to drop. Oh well.
Live and learn I suppose. So now I'm trying to decipher
if my new found bullish views on certain sectors are "capitulation"
and we are doomed to drop? Or, just sensible thinking given
the circumstances. Here is what I'm thinking.... and what is
crazy is that if this all plays out -- a rotation back into
commodities, the $WLSH breakout (the real breakout that should
warrant attention), will be totally legit and this bull shall have
legs for months? I know, sounds crazy, but who knows what
might cause it to end, or even when?
So, check out the similarities between trannies and copper.
If copper breaks topside here, it would be a spaceshot.
I'm sure that gold stocks, oil stocks (OIH in particular),
would also go ballistic. Also likely that the $USD would move
substantially lower. Again, too many predictions. Right
here, right now, copper stocks had a strong week and seem to be
leading the metal. All this despite a VERY bearish 60 minutes
piece on how China will implode, Italy is downgraded and wants to
leave the euro, and the jobs really aren't coming back. But
all that stuff is too obvious (just as europe was a great buy last
summer and Japan a great but last fall). It almost seems that
the new "wall of worry" is the unanimous opinion that this is a
stock bubble. I think it is too -- but there is only clear
air above the $WLSH right now, and it might just go bottom feeding
for new sectors to bring up to the rare air.
Not sure if these are ready yet -- except for Italy -- I'm sure
that downgrade will only propel them higher. EWI looks best
to me. And I'm not crazy enough to buy NBG.... maybe 1000
shares or something.
Very nice weekly candle. Look for some consolidation.
PGH even stronger move off a bottom. Love how it is
embedded in upper bb. Wait for pullback to all the MA
cluster.
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not those chart. all the other ones u posted
Dollar topping? Commodities heating up?
Posted by jen12 on 8th of Mar 2013 at 05:32 pm
and your headline says "Dollar topping" don't look for tops in everything
fair point -- I had
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Mar 2013 at 05:38 pm
fair point -- I had a tutorial with Steve and he is straightening me out. I don't have too much of an opinion on the dollar, I only deduced that a weaker dollar would likely be the cause of an advance in copper. The main point of those charts was that copper gapped down to major support on Monday (as did FCX) and both held -- in fact FCX led. All this with a continued strong dollar -- this rally in FCX might have legs.
I think it is good
Posted by wowten on 8th of Mar 2013 at 11:15 pm
I think it is good that you call it as you see it, as it makes me look at things in another perspective. None of us get it right all the time. I appreciate all your work and the fact that you take the time to share it. Many different views are healthy, and provides good insight for all of us. Thanks.
Thanks wowten. Yes, I've missed
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Mar 2013 at 11:31 pm
Thanks wowten. Yes, I've missed the boat on most of this bull market. Mind you, part of the reason was because I knocked it out of the park in 2008, and pretty much this whole time have been expecting the other shoe to drop. Oh well. Live and learn I suppose. So now I'm trying to decipher if my new found bullish views on certain sectors are "capitulation" and we are doomed to drop? Or, just sensible thinking given the circumstances. Here is what I'm thinking.... and what is crazy is that if this all plays out -- a rotation back into commodities, the $WLSH breakout (the real breakout that should warrant attention), will be totally legit and this bull shall have legs for months? I know, sounds crazy, but who knows what might cause it to end, or even when?
So, check out the similarities between trannies and copper. If copper breaks topside here, it would be a spaceshot. I'm sure that gold stocks, oil stocks (OIH in particular), would also go ballistic. Also likely that the $USD would move substantially lower. Again, too many predictions. Right here, right now, copper stocks had a strong week and seem to be leading the metal. All this despite a VERY bearish 60 minutes piece on how China will implode, Italy is downgraded and wants to leave the euro, and the jobs really aren't coming back. But all that stuff is too obvious (just as europe was a great buy last summer and Japan a great but last fall). It almost seems that the new "wall of worry" is the unanimous opinion that this is a stock bubble. I think it is too -- but there is only clear air above the $WLSH right now, and it might just go bottom feeding for new sectors to bring up to the rare air.
Or just strong US$, strong equities, commodity deflation...
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Mar 2013 at 07:59 pm
dollar is more related to
Posted by bpt2013 on 9th of Mar 2013 at 08:28 pm
dollar is more related to global perspect. right now global growth is balance at most. so don't expect dollar going anywher so as commodility
Kalinm, thanks for the interesting
Posted by hamvestor on 9th of Mar 2013 at 12:02 am
Kalinm, thanks for the interesting perspective and chart comparison. Very useful input.
Commodities look poised to outperform, and I think there is also a good case to be made that that old dog, GDX, may have bottomed or be awfully close.
ok if u had a tutorial, then i will be looking for bottom looking charts from u.
Posted by jen12 on 8th of Mar 2013 at 05:51 pm
Not sure if these are
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Mar 2013 at 05:57 pm
Not sure if these are ready yet -- except for Italy -- I'm sure that downgrade will only propel them higher. EWI looks best to me. And I'm not crazy enough to buy NBG.... maybe 1000 shares or something.
PWE on a pullback. PGH even better.
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Mar 2013 at 06:12 pm
Very nice weekly candle. Look for some consolidation. PGH even stronger move off a bottom. Love how it is embedded in upper bb. Wait for pullback to all the MA cluster.