Sorry Steve, couldn't help but notice this and point this out.
Not calling a top here.... but warning of the divergences
that extended today that I just can't ignore.
We look all set to rally on SPX now that we have re-gained the
9ema (in fact we did on everything except QQQ). I hear the
bulls chanting "all time highs" on the DOW. This might very
well happen. What a perfect backdrop of fear too -- italy,
sequestration -- we can easily climb this wall of worry for another
few weeks!
But Dr. Copper's prognosis is not a good one. Take a look
back at the May 2010 topping pattern (what was thought at the time
to be a consolidation pattern before blasting off to new highs back
then).
This chart warned of the sharp sell off in late Feb.
Question now is, does the copper/china/euro financials mean
anything? $SPX all time new highs or bust? Not too
sure, other than conditions seem ripe for another steep plunge on
the $SPX with divergences continuing to mount.
Hadik has noted recently that the 2.5 yr cycle that has
called the tops and bottoms of this market so well since 1997 had a
call of a top between Feb 13-22, 2013. So far looks like a good
call.
There was that fibonacci chart that Matt had in a newsletter
about a month or two ago that showed a potential for a major top or
bottom when it came due. Having said that, they have all been
bottoms, so maybe not relevant. Additionally, Caldaro has
noted that this entire bull market has baffled him in that there
have not been long and drawn out wave 4 structures, but that they
seem to always peter out, or we get truncated 5th waves.
I made a promise to Steve to lose my bearish bias....... this
was too hard for me not to notice.
Now, this is certainly no
guarantee of anything close to this happening, but for now, very
difficult to watch copper close to breaking down from an 18 month
triangle and not think it will have an affect on the broad markets.
Also, VIX and TLT are not anywhere close to eclipsing their
lows. Additionally, the $VIX buy signal was triggered today,
just like it was at the end of April 2010.
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Many similarities to May 2010 "flash crash"
Posted by kalinm on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 04:28 pm
Sorry Steve, couldn't help but notice this and point this out. Not calling a top here.... but warning of the divergences that extended today that I just can't ignore.
We look all set to rally on SPX now that we have re-gained the 9ema (in fact we did on everything except QQQ). I hear the bulls chanting "all time highs" on the DOW. This might very well happen. What a perfect backdrop of fear too -- italy, sequestration -- we can easily climb this wall of worry for another few weeks!
But Dr. Copper's prognosis is not a good one. Take a look back at the May 2010 topping pattern (what was thought at the time to be a consolidation pattern before blasting off to new highs back then).
This chart warned of the
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Apr 2013 at 05:52 pm
This chart warned of the sharp sell off in late Feb. Question now is, does the copper/china/euro financials mean anything? $SPX all time new highs or bust? Not too sure, other than conditions seem ripe for another steep plunge on the $SPX with divergences continuing to mount.
Since Feb 1, $SPX up
Posted by kalinm on 8th of Apr 2013 at 06:03 pm
Since Feb 1, $SPX up 3% and copper down 15%. Not even sure if this matters anymore though. Utilities will keep this bull firing!
a top you say?
Posted by perthx on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 05:21 pm
Hadik has noted recently that the 2.5 yr cycle that has called the tops and bottoms of this market so well since 1997 had a call of a top between Feb 13-22, 2013. So far looks like a good call.
please post a link for the hadik comment? thank you
Posted by jen12 on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 06:49 pm
There was that fibonacci chart
Posted by kalinm on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 06:38 pm
There was that fibonacci chart that Matt had in a newsletter about a month or two ago that showed a potential for a major top or bottom when it came due. Having said that, they have all been bottoms, so maybe not relevant. Additionally, Caldaro has noted that this entire bull market has baffled him in that there have not been long and drawn out wave 4 structures, but that they seem to always peter out, or we get truncated 5th waves.
Food for thought there, kalinm,
Posted by isplat on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 04:32 pm
Food for thought there, kalinm, excellent analysis, thanks very much!
I made a promise to
Posted by kalinm on 22nd of Feb 2013 at 04:36 pm
I made a promise to Steve to lose my bearish bias....... this was too hard for me not to notice.
Now, this is certainly no
guarantee of anything close to this happening, but for now, very
difficult to watch copper close to breaking down from an 18 month
triangle and not think it will have an affect on the broad markets.
Also, VIX and TLT are not anywhere close to eclipsing their
lows. Additionally, the $VIX buy signal was triggered today,
just like it was at the end of April 2010.