While last week seems to have the makings of a breakout rally to
kick off a bullish year, I think it's important to be objective
about where we are in a very big picture. Small caps sure do
look bullish; other indices, not as much. My father in law,
after reading all the headlines of last week, let me know that he
plans to move from a conservative portfolio to a more aggressive
stock based portfolio. I think my rationale for telling him
he must wait, is that this is an aging bull market. I give it
one more year at best (but I also give it odds that we have already
topped in the DOW, AAPL. Given that the DOW returned about 8%
last year and is up about 3% on the year so far, not prudent to
jump in right now IMO. Of course this chart might be playing
out too.
kalinm. your postings are always interesting. Please keep
posting. You are, just like me, obviously way too early in beeing a
bear. All alarm bells are ringing but those banksters (who can
blame them... printing money is their only option...) manage to
keep things going. Your bearcharts are very convincing ond this
money/debt bubble can't go on forever. Problem is, that there still
could be a couple of weeks, even months bevore the trust in the
powers is vanished.... I hope I'll be there with shorts when the
time will come.....
Thanks zwyss. Yes, I was fooled by the sharp sell off in
Aug 2011. That sell-off broke the back of the bull, or so I
thought. A similar thing happened (technically speaking), in
the 1998 LTCM crisis. The market climbed a final wall of
worry for 19 months before finally peaking in 2000. I view
this last over-lappy and hated rally as similar.... and it is 16
months after that point now. Also similar action now to then
was the "blow-off" spike in Nasdaq 100 stocks. Finally, MSFT
peaked and started crashing a few months before the broad markets.
The bull market leader died, and other things picked up the
slack for a little while, but not too long. If AAPL peaked in
September, we are nearing 4 months without the bull market leader
-- not conducive for a sustainable bull run IMO.
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Title: Secular bear market action
Posted by kalinm on 6th of Jan 2013 at 09:48 am
While last week seems to have the makings of a breakout rally to kick off a bullish year, I think it's important to be objective about where we are in a very big picture. Small caps sure do look bullish; other indices, not as much. My father in law, after reading all the headlines of last week, let me know that he plans to move from a conservative portfolio to a more aggressive stock based portfolio. I think my rationale for telling him he must wait, is that this is an aging bull market. I give it one more year at best (but I also give it odds that we have already topped in the DOW, AAPL. Given that the DOW returned about 8% last year and is up about 3% on the year so far, not prudent to jump in right now IMO. Of course this chart might be playing out too.
kalinm. your postings are always
Posted by zwyss on 6th of Jan 2013 at 01:57 pm
kalinm. your postings are always interesting. Please keep posting. You are, just like me, obviously way too early in beeing a bear. All alarm bells are ringing but those banksters (who can blame them... printing money is their only option...) manage to keep things going. Your bearcharts are very convincing ond this money/debt bubble can't go on forever. Problem is, that there still could be a couple of weeks, even months bevore the trust in the powers is vanished.... I hope I'll be there with shorts when the time will come.....
Thanks zwyss. Yes, I was
Posted by kalinm on 6th of Jan 2013 at 02:52 pm
Thanks zwyss. Yes, I was fooled by the sharp sell off in Aug 2011. That sell-off broke the back of the bull, or so I thought. A similar thing happened (technically speaking), in the 1998 LTCM crisis. The market climbed a final wall of worry for 19 months before finally peaking in 2000. I view this last over-lappy and hated rally as similar.... and it is 16 months after that point now. Also similar action now to then was the "blow-off" spike in Nasdaq 100 stocks. Finally, MSFT peaked and started crashing a few months before the broad markets. The bull market leader died, and other things picked up the slack for a little while, but not too long. If AAPL peaked in September, we are nearing 4 months without the bull market leader -- not conducive for a sustainable bull run IMO.