the last few weeks watching the "news driven market. "
the first book i ever read about TA left me with two
memorable quotes- first was that the "market leads the economic
news , maybe by 3 to 6 months" and that the first rule of TA
(according to that book) was to "ignore the news" as the TA
patterns will trump the news anyway.
so now i am watching the market react to news items
daily.....but really apart from short term reactions maybe it is
just doing what the patterns would tell us it was going to do
anyway.
i think the fiscal cliff was always never going to be resolved
until the last minute just because politicians need a headline that
makes them look like heroes.... "i saved americans from devastation
at the last minute" and i also think that the market is going down
hard sometime soon whether or not the fiscal cliff is resolved, and
i think the patterns for this are in place. it is has also been a
bit of a pattern the last few years that market tops have come in
on so called "Good News" items.
i also find it interesting that markets have rallied most of
last year on the basis of awful economic reports and now as the
rally looks to be fading the economic news is generally
improving.
so maybe that book i read was right, and maybe as steve and matt
have been saying too we just need to look at the analysis and
ignore the rest and maybe that might be easier to say when i am not
living in the U.S. and directly affected by the fiscal
rubbish........ but anyway there is my 2 cents worth. all the best
for a new year to all.
TA tells us that the markets could turn down now.... may be...or
may be not yet...
I live in Europe and to me it looks like a joke when I read
economic news is generally improving (...in the US).
The USA is like a family which spends 100 K $ a year but earns only
60 K $. That's like russian roulette with more and more bullets in
the revolver. There still can be good news but at what
price/risk....Rather sooner than later this game will be over.
Of course it's not only the USA, it's everywhere. This debt
problem can not be resolved in a good way. I hope Matt/Steve
can tell us when to take the big shorts...
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TA and news
Posted by morgan8 on 30th of Dec 2012 at 11:47 pm
the last few weeks watching the "news driven market. " the first book i ever read about TA left me with two memorable quotes- first was that the "market leads the economic news , maybe by 3 to 6 months" and that the first rule of TA (according to that book) was to "ignore the news" as the TA patterns will trump the news anyway.
so now i am watching the market react to news items daily.....but really apart from short term reactions maybe it is just doing what the patterns would tell us it was going to do anyway.
i think the fiscal cliff was always never going to be resolved until the last minute just because politicians need a headline that makes them look like heroes.... "i saved americans from devastation at the last minute" and i also think that the market is going down hard sometime soon whether or not the fiscal cliff is resolved, and i think the patterns for this are in place. it is has also been a bit of a pattern the last few years that market tops have come in on so called "Good News" items.
i also find it interesting that markets have rallied most of last year on the basis of awful economic reports and now as the rally looks to be fading the economic news is generally improving.
so maybe that book i read was right, and maybe as steve and matt have been saying too we just need to look at the analysis and ignore the rest and maybe that might be easier to say when i am not living in the U.S. and directly affected by the fiscal rubbish........ but anyway there is my 2 cents worth. all the best for a new year to all.
ignore the rest...
Posted by zwyss on 31st of Dec 2012 at 06:07 am
...it's hard to ignore the rest, morgan...
TA tells us that the markets could turn down now.... may be...or may be not yet...
I live in Europe and to me it looks like a joke when I read economic news is generally improving (...in the US). The USA is like a family which spends 100 K $ a year but earns only 60 K $. That's like russian roulette with more and more bullets in the revolver. There still can be good news but at what price/risk....Rather sooner than later this game will be over.
Of course it's not only the USA, it's everywhere. This debt problem can not be resolved in a good way. I hope Matt/Steve can tell us when to take the big shorts...