I haven't been following the COT option data, so I don't know what a good number is, to really have a good feel for that you have to plot it with the price of gold for years and compare the numbers to peaks and troughs in gold, however I've been following the commercial net short for many years and therefore I have a feel for it.  First thing to realize, the commercials are ALWAYS's net short, so that's not the issue, the issue is with how much they are net short.  When the Net Short is > 250K, gold is toppy, though it can stay elevated for long periods of time. When it falls below 200K and into the 100's, that's generally a positive. If you look at the chart, major bottoms used to occur when this 'net short' fell below 100K, however this low threshold number has steadily risen over the years and the commercial short net low after 2008 has been in the 100's, the last two lows it was 165K and 130K.