I don't understand what the big excitement is for?
everybody knows fed-easury will bailout anybody on the correct
side of the street, that is forgone conclusion, the market knows
it, heck, even my aunt knows it, and the market expects it, and
market gets it
let me be frank, I am all for government this and that on the
back of future generations, I do not want to leave in 1929,
period.
Fed-easury actions are not just because of Gross, when it
comes to real big holders of crappy paper, China and Russia, Gross
is as insignificant as a mosquito, a bit of noise, an annoying
bite, abd that's it. i.e. if the bite is not extraordinarily
infected
and I think Hank and Ben have done a master stroke breaking the
commodity bull, it is a lesson to be learned not to take central
bankers lightly when it comes to their viability and survival.
So if Gross is hurting with crappy paper, China and Russia are
losing, too, and we can`t have that, can we?
now, if you are a short term trader, you see the 1220 pivot of
SPX, you see extreme oversold on lower time frames, you see the
hard bounce, and you have to lighten up
if you are more long term situated, it's a bear market by every
technical measue known to me (I know very little as you can plainly
see), it is spreading all over the world, you should welcome a
bounce, if you are bearish, not fear it
Some say that US markets are played with by the PPT team, if
that' true, and you can't handle it, short Europe, no PPT bounces
there that I could have detected.
It is exactly the naive reactionary attitude that let outlets
like CNBC instill fear and chop traders' capital
decide who you are, pay attention to the macro environment
governing the markets, make bets accordingly, make bets like you
know you'll lose it all, watch the charts, and turn off TV.
everybody and their cousin knows financials and housing are in
doodoo, so guess what, they hold better than others, but new
sectors start declines as old ones firm up, or stand pat, that is
the characteristic of a bear market, identify those, and short
those, if you believe this is a bear mrket
while everyone was busy shorting financials and housing, I
bought a truck load of puts on BBH, guess what, that was one of the
best performing trades of my life as a market participant, why did
I go that way, I believe I have to short strength in a bear market,
and BBH looked strong, but momentum was diminishing at that top,
you can't let that go un-shorted in a bear market, similarly, you
can't short everrybod else's short and expect instant
gratification
Posted by treid4dou on 6th of Sep 2008 at 07:20 pm
When SPX was weak,and Financials beaten up, the Qs were keeping
the mkt up. Now....the reverse....he
he.......Amzn hit 92......while the Banks were
tanking....now.....Banks holding....and Amzn....$10 down.....As u
say.....typical Bear Mkt. action and manipulation to hold the un
holdable.....They reduced rates...for what ????...They bailed out
BSC....just for a friendly hand thru the JPM cro*cks.....but the
mkt. had its trend unbroken..... Nothing has yet, fundamentally
changed.....YET.....and a huge bailout does not seem what the mkt.
will ultimatelly ponder. IMO. Stil and always
trading by charts.....but with some fundamental background
too.Nothing favors a bull reversal under current projected
circumstances....More counter trend ralies at best. YET.
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Fed will bailout
Posted by dallahoo on 6th of Sep 2008 at 06:07 pm
I don't understand what the big excitement is for?
everybody knows fed-easury will bailout anybody on the correct side of the street, that is forgone conclusion, the market knows it, heck, even my aunt knows it, and the market expects it, and market gets it
let me be frank, I am all for government this and that on the back of future generations, I do not want to leave in 1929, period.
Fed-easury actions are not just because of Gross, when it comes to real big holders of crappy paper, China and Russia, Gross is as insignificant as a mosquito, a bit of noise, an annoying bite, abd that's it. i.e. if the bite is not extraordinarily infected
and I think Hank and Ben have done a master stroke breaking the commodity bull, it is a lesson to be learned not to take central bankers lightly when it comes to their viability and survival.
So if Gross is hurting with crappy paper, China and Russia are losing, too, and we can`t have that, can we?
now, if you are a short term trader, you see the 1220 pivot of SPX, you see extreme oversold on lower time frames, you see the hard bounce, and you have to lighten up
if you are more long term situated, it's a bear market by every technical measue known to me (I know very little as you can plainly see), it is spreading all over the world, you should welcome a bounce, if you are bearish, not fear it
Some say that US markets are played with by the PPT team, if that' true, and you can't handle it, short Europe, no PPT bounces there that I could have detected.
It is exactly the naive reactionary attitude that let outlets like CNBC instill fear and chop traders' capital
decide who you are, pay attention to the macro environment governing the markets, make bets accordingly, make bets like you know you'll lose it all, watch the charts, and turn off TV.
everybody and their cousin knows financials and housing are in doodoo, so guess what, they hold better than others, but new sectors start declines as old ones firm up, or stand pat, that is the characteristic of a bear market, identify those, and short those, if you believe this is a bear mrket
while everyone was busy shorting financials and housing, I bought a truck load of puts on BBH, guess what, that was one of the best performing trades of my life as a market participant, why did I go that way, I believe I have to short strength in a bear market, and BBH looked strong, but momentum was diminishing at that top, you can't let that go un-shorted in a bear market, similarly, you can't short everrybod else's short and expect instant gratification
dallahoo - great post.
Posted by Michael on 6th of Sep 2008 at 09:43 pm
dallahoo - great post.
When SPX was weak,and Financials
Posted by treid4dou on 6th of Sep 2008 at 07:20 pm
When SPX was weak,and Financials beaten up, the Qs were keeping the mkt up. Now....the reverse....he he.......Amzn hit 92......while the Banks were tanking....now.....Banks holding....and Amzn....$10 down.....As u say.....typical Bear Mkt. action and manipulation to hold the un holdable.....They reduced rates...for what ????...They bailed out BSC....just for a friendly hand thru the JPM cro*cks.....but the mkt. had its trend unbroken..... Nothing has yet, fundamentally changed.....YET.....and a huge bailout does not seem what the mkt. will ultimatelly ponder. IMO. Stil and always trading by charts.....but with some fundamental background too.Nothing favors a bull reversal under current projected circumstances....More counter trend ralies at best. YET.