10 easy......this whole mortgage credit mess, is over. If
you can buy foreclosre, do it, because not many will be coming
anymore. give up your chart bias. and come over to my
story side.
delane - this is a technical
analysis website, and we are as versed in fundamentals as much as
you (especially Steve), but we find it better to follow the charts
ourselves. You mentioned something about when everything
looks good the top will be near; well come on, I think we have
navigated the market very well, we have played the major trends
this year and last year very well (though we are far from perfect);
near tops you tend to see divergence and topping patterns, near
bottoms you see capitulations and divergences as well, to imply
that the charts would improve at the top is false.
Yes the banks and financials have
been leading and hold up well and that is a good sign, and who
knows, maybe enough inside people knew something and that's why
they have held up. On the other hand techs tend to lead the
market and they have not been lately, which is a negative.
News can trump the charts, but you can't trade off what ifs, no one
knew that the news on Friday night was coming out unless you were a
wallstreetinsider, you can't trade off that.
There are positives and negatives
in the charts and this year trading has been some of the most
difficult we have ever seen. As dylan and a few others
pointed out, swing trading has been near impossible this year,
though I think BPT has managed to do it fairly well still, we were
long Mar - May, then short from May/June - July, then we played
mostly the long side from July 15th and we've had a lot of
individual plays do very well this year despite the difficult
market. Our BESN had a great run but got ahead of itself and
is now consolidating. Most of the time it's been better to take
profits quickly this year especially on initial bursts/moves i.e.
recent examples are the ultra short ETF's (taking some partial
profits on the first move (on Thursday for example or Friday
morning) because now they are pulling back because the marked
bounced nicely on Friday), DIG was a another recent Watch List
example (and there's so many more), it had a nice move up, but then
crashed, you have take profits fairly quickly.
The news on Friday night is
interesting, but it's still up in the air if it will trump the
charts or will just cause a temporary bounce back to resistance
(1260 or a little higher) and then the market starts another sell
off, or if this news changes psychology enough that a bottom is
formed and a new uptrend begins, but again we'll react and adjust
if we need to. We need to see how the market reacts, but for
now we think those prior support areas will probably act as
resistance. Charts are basically snapshots of the mass psychology
of the market, and at this point the psychology still looks
negative, though that could change.
Be careful about being too cocky
about what the market has to do, we are all students of the market,
but no one ever really
graduates, they just move higher in grade level over
time! The market surprises even the best of pros at
times, we all get better at predicting and trading the market
overtime and managing our emotions, but we can never totally be
certatin what it's going to do, that's where money management and
taking low risk trades comes into play; be disciplined and not over
margined and you will make money over time.
Posted by pcampbell66 on 6th of Sep 2008 at 04:24 pm
Matt that was very well put...I hope that my post is read in the
same perspective...I looked at the last 30 election year sept and
oct's and thye are negative - many of them in the double digits -
which is surprising to me. Could this time be different - well in
this market anything is possible...firday was a good example...I
was thinking ER2 could bounce to the 718 area...i covered at
704...but never could have imagined that we would pop to 722 or
higher...which at this point may become a fibonacci trifecta and
make it to 729 to 732...in any case...confidence is not a good
thing in these markets...humility and the ability to adapt is. I
have my perspectives of what i think should and could happen...but
my automated systems and charts are designed to keep me out of
it...the trick is to listen to them and not put your opinions and
thoughts in a lofty view...as they are your thoughts and
impressions not the market's...you guys have done an absolutely
tremendous job - IMO - the best of any analyst i know other than
Jim Shepherd - (he is not a swing trader perse) and I want to
congratulate you on a wonderful job done.
WM...gets to be back in business
hban...safe now, wish I still had it
Posted by delane on 5th of Sep 2008 at 05:02 pm
10 easy......this whole mortgage credit mess, is over. If you can buy foreclosre, do it, because not many will be coming anymore. give up your chart bias. and come over to my story side.
delane - this is a
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2008 at 03:52 pm
delane - this is a technical analysis website, and we are as versed in fundamentals as much as you (especially Steve), but we find it better to follow the charts ourselves. You mentioned something about when everything looks good the top will be near; well come on, I think we have navigated the market very well, we have played the major trends this year and last year very well (though we are far from perfect); near tops you tend to see divergence and topping patterns, near bottoms you see capitulations and divergences as well, to imply that the charts would improve at the top is false.
Yes the banks and financials have been leading and hold up well and that is a good sign, and who knows, maybe enough inside people knew something and that's why they have held up. On the other hand techs tend to lead the market and they have not been lately, which is a negative. News can trump the charts, but you can't trade off what ifs, no one knew that the news on Friday night was coming out unless you were a wallstreetinsider, you can't trade off that.
There are positives and negatives in the charts and this year trading has been some of the most difficult we have ever seen. As dylan and a few others pointed out, swing trading has been near impossible this year, though I think BPT has managed to do it fairly well still, we were long Mar - May, then short from May/June - July, then we played mostly the long side from July 15th and we've had a lot of individual plays do very well this year despite the difficult market. Our BESN had a great run but got ahead of itself and is now consolidating. Most of the time it's been better to take profits quickly this year especially on initial bursts/moves i.e. recent examples are the ultra short ETF's (taking some partial profits on the first move (on Thursday for example or Friday morning) because now they are pulling back because the marked bounced nicely on Friday), DIG was a another recent Watch List example (and there's so many more), it had a nice move up, but then crashed, you have take profits fairly quickly.
The news on Friday night is interesting, but it's still up in the air if it will trump the charts or will just cause a temporary bounce back to resistance (1260 or a little higher) and then the market starts another sell off, or if this news changes psychology enough that a bottom is formed and a new uptrend begins, but again we'll react and adjust if we need to. We need to see how the market reacts, but for now we think those prior support areas will probably act as resistance. Charts are basically snapshots of the mass psychology of the market, and at this point the psychology still looks negative, though that could change.
Be careful about being too cocky about what the market has to do, we are all students of the market, but no one ever really graduates, they just move higher in grade level over time! The market surprises even the best of pros at times, we all get better at predicting and trading the market overtime and managing our emotions, but we can never totally be certatin what it's going to do, that's where money management and taking low risk trades comes into play; be disciplined and not over margined and you will make money over time.
credit mess over?
Posted by jbarry on 7th of Sep 2008 at 01:55 pm
What are you smoking?...look at the debt, look at the yields on some the corporate debt, GM debt trading at 2500bps over 2yr treasuries?...
Wells Fargo increases it's dividend and then raises money through a preferred offering, yielding 9.5%??...
You can't get a deal done in the US unless you're offering at least 8.5%...
NCC offering $200 to clients to cancel their unused line of credit, just to make their balance sheet look a little better...
We're not even half way through this...
Matt that was very well
Posted by pcampbell66 on 6th of Sep 2008 at 04:24 pm
Matt that was very well put...I hope that my post is read in the same perspective...I looked at the last 30 election year sept and oct's and thye are negative - many of them in the double digits - which is surprising to me. Could this time be different - well in this market anything is possible...firday was a good example...I was thinking ER2 could bounce to the 718 area...i covered at 704...but never could have imagined that we would pop to 722 or higher...which at this point may become a fibonacci trifecta and make it to 729 to 732...in any case...confidence is not a good thing in these markets...humility and the ability to adapt is. I have my perspectives of what i think should and could happen...but my automated systems and charts are designed to keep me out of it...the trick is to listen to them and not put your opinions and thoughts in a lofty view...as they are your thoughts and impressions not the market's...you guys have done an absolutely tremendous job - IMO - the best of any analyst i know other than Jim Shepherd - (he is not a swing trader perse) and I want to congratulate you on a wonderful job done.
Yes
Posted by ravun on 7th of Sep 2008 at 12:42 pm
Well said.
Also seems you also like caldaroew
Daily