Topping candle near 50 day MA and .618 retrace so have to see
nature and extend of expected pullback. All the major indices
are missing right shoulders (higher lows) so have to see if this
can be established in the coming days/week
I'm looking at a two year SPX chart and it looks pretty ominous
to me for a few reasons.
1) tried to gap over major resistance today and was firmly
rejected. 1422 March high seems to now be resistance.
2) the Bernanke QE infinity rally seems to be a brief over-shoot
of a massive falling wedge which is quite typical of the "e" wave
on wedge patterns -- confirmed when it broke down from that
wedge.
3) that wedge was back-tested today, but rejected. Maybe
it re-tries this test, maybe not.
Throw in a rallying VIX from very low levels, heightened
bullishness over the last two weeks; a bizarre "contrarian" view
that the fiscal cliff is only a "blip" in the road of a strong
bull, and this mornings high might be one of note. Of course
nothing too bearish has happened and it might just run sideways
until Santa's sleigh delivers his rally a little later this
month.
added to that looking at a 60m chart of spx or ndx BB are
tighter than for a while and high is divergent on macd and stoch's
have room to move down. 60m vix chart looks to me like it has some
upside at least in the shorter term. i see aapl is down well
pre-market which will only help drag index lower , especially ndx,
so i thinking at least some short term lower prices here.
short ndx from yesterday 2686, and watching .
matt earlier this year you had a stat, i think it was if market
closed first quarter higher than jan close there was a high prob
for year to end higher,,,,,, or something like that. when you get a
moment could you repeat it please.
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Posted by steve on 3rd of Dec 2012 at 03:56 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
$SPX - Chart Link
Topping candle near 50 day MA and .618 retrace so have to see nature and extend of expected pullback. All the major indices are missing right shoulders (higher lows) so have to see if this can be established in the coming days/week
I'm looking at a two
Posted by kalinm on 3rd of Dec 2012 at 04:21 pm
I'm looking at a two year SPX chart and it looks pretty ominous to me for a few reasons.
1) tried to gap over major resistance today and was firmly rejected. 1422 March high seems to now be resistance.
2) the Bernanke QE infinity rally seems to be a brief over-shoot of a massive falling wedge which is quite typical of the "e" wave on wedge patterns -- confirmed when it broke down from that wedge.
3) that wedge was back-tested today, but rejected. Maybe it re-tries this test, maybe not.
Throw in a rallying VIX from very low levels, heightened bullishness over the last two weeks; a bizarre "contrarian" view that the fiscal cliff is only a "blip" in the road of a strong bull, and this mornings high might be one of note. Of course nothing too bearish has happened and it might just run sideways until Santa's sleigh delivers his rally a little later this month.
agreed kalinm
Posted by morgan8 on 4th of Dec 2012 at 09:27 am
added to that looking at a 60m chart of spx or ndx BB are tighter than for a while and high is divergent on macd and stoch's have room to move down. 60m vix chart looks to me like it has some upside at least in the shorter term. i see aapl is down well pre-market which will only help drag index lower , especially ndx, so i thinking at least some short term lower prices here.
short ndx from yesterday 2686, and watching .
matt earlier this year you had a stat, i think it was if market closed first quarter higher than jan close there was a high prob for year to end higher,,,,,, or something like that. when you get a moment could you repeat it please.