so i got the spx short trade from 1434. well actually i
took the short on ndx as it set up better for me but i still do
most of my analysis on spx and then apply it to ndx.
and so now i am faced with my normal problem, when to get out.
this may sound a little glib, but i give away far more money on bad
exits than i do bad entries. stop is currently .38 of last leg down
from 1388 so at 1363. my target is around 1345 the .618 retrace on
the chart. but i also do EW counts and keep an eye on macd for
hints it may be longer or shorter. i think a low is very close in
time. i can see a complete Ew count of 5 waves down from 1388 now.
i could exit right now at 1349 and it would be a good trade. but i
think it is not finished, things have got a bit panicky last few
days, this needs to end with a wide range down day closing on the
low, or a gap down open and reversal day, it needs to wash out the
last of the longs. yes a lot of indicators are oversold but today
was not feeling like a low to me. so i am not trying to pick the
exact bottom but once in a good trade i want to make the most of it
, naturally.
there are other things at play, steve one of your symetry charts
pointed out that a move down of 156 points would equal last leg
down, that leg would be equal in days today 16th, at 63 days . if
it hit 1318 today i would exit, i would also then think that 1474
may not be the top.
anyway looking at what i have written, probably i make it too
complicated,
Good narrative. Please post more as you promised!
What if you consider the top to be the 1470 (where the INDU
made a new high, but maybe a failed fifth on the SPX)?
Anyway, that would just "buy" you time -- I agree, downtrends
can only go so far. I sold my shorts at 1380 as I thought
there might be a reaction at the 1386 or 1372 pivot -- there was,
but I missed my second chance. We are really in "no man's
land" right now. I wouldn't go long or short at this level.
One thought would be to lighten up on the short at this level
to ensure profits. If we bounce, you can re-short at better
prices; if it continues to tank, you can scale out on the way down.
I wish I had "lightened up" at 1380 rather than exit.
Oh well, the next trade is coming up soon. Either way,
nice trade for you!
especially the possible failed 5th i had completely
forgotten.
another thing i watch is a few gann time cycles, the sp500 loves
doing 90 calender day cycles. not all the time but more often than
most people would think. you count them off recent highs or lows
and when they appear they can be perfect.
long story short gann divided everything by 3 and by 8 so you
divide 90 days by 3 and by 8 and start counting, 90 / 8 = 11.25
days, 22.5, 33.75,45 and so on. 90 /3 gives 30 and 60.
so from a new top i just watch 11 days down, if you get a high
or low day, then watch 22.5 days, if it hits again and then again
on 30 chances are you are running a 90 cycle. as i said it happens
more often than you think, i never really expect to hit every
division but if you hit the big ones , like 30,45,and 60 you have a
strong chance of a trend change around 90. i never trade this
alone but use it as another indicator.
so the point here is i have been counting from the 1474 high and
there has not been much to hang your hat on at this stage. but it
may be worth counting from the 1470 high oct 5th as well given it
may be the real top,,and that gives mon 19th as 45 days. these 90
cycles do not have to be 90 in one direction, they often split 60
one way and 30 the other, or 45 down and 45 up. so for me, given
all the other oversold indicators, if monday showed a big volume
panic down day,, and i am still in the trade i would exit.
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as promised
Posted by morgan8 on 16th of Nov 2012 at 02:04 am
so i got the spx short trade from 1434. well actually i took the short on ndx as it set up better for me but i still do most of my analysis on spx and then apply it to ndx.
and so now i am faced with my normal problem, when to get out. this may sound a little glib, but i give away far more money on bad exits than i do bad entries. stop is currently .38 of last leg down from 1388 so at 1363. my target is around 1345 the .618 retrace on the chart. but i also do EW counts and keep an eye on macd for hints it may be longer or shorter. i think a low is very close in time. i can see a complete Ew count of 5 waves down from 1388 now. i could exit right now at 1349 and it would be a good trade. but i think it is not finished, things have got a bit panicky last few days, this needs to end with a wide range down day closing on the low, or a gap down open and reversal day, it needs to wash out the last of the longs. yes a lot of indicators are oversold but today was not feeling like a low to me. so i am not trying to pick the exact bottom but once in a good trade i want to make the most of it , naturally.
there are other things at play, steve one of your symetry charts pointed out that a move down of 156 points would equal last leg down, that leg would be equal in days today 16th, at 63 days . if it hit 1318 today i would exit, i would also then think that 1474 may not be the top.
anyway looking at what i have written, probably i make it too complicated,
advice welcome.
Good narrative. Please post more
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Nov 2012 at 02:19 am
Good narrative. Please post more as you promised! What if you consider the top to be the 1470 (where the INDU made a new high, but maybe a failed fifth on the SPX)? Anyway, that would just "buy" you time -- I agree, downtrends can only go so far. I sold my shorts at 1380 as I thought there might be a reaction at the 1386 or 1372 pivot -- there was, but I missed my second chance. We are really in "no man's land" right now. I wouldn't go long or short at this level. One thought would be to lighten up on the short at this level to ensure profits. If we bounce, you can re-short at better prices; if it continues to tank, you can scale out on the way down. I wish I had "lightened up" at 1380 rather than exit. Oh well, the next trade is coming up soon. Either way, nice trade for you!
cheers kalinm and thanks for your thoughts,,,
Posted by morgan8 on 16th of Nov 2012 at 04:29 am
especially the possible failed 5th i had completely forgotten.
another thing i watch is a few gann time cycles, the sp500 loves doing 90 calender day cycles. not all the time but more often than most people would think. you count them off recent highs or lows and when they appear they can be perfect.
long story short gann divided everything by 3 and by 8 so you divide 90 days by 3 and by 8 and start counting, 90 / 8 = 11.25 days, 22.5, 33.75,45 and so on. 90 /3 gives 30 and 60.
so from a new top i just watch 11 days down, if you get a high or low day, then watch 22.5 days, if it hits again and then again on 30 chances are you are running a 90 cycle. as i said it happens more often than you think, i never really expect to hit every division but if you hit the big ones , like 30,45,and 60 you have a strong chance of a trend change around 90. i never trade this alone but use it as another indicator.
so the point here is i have been counting from the 1474 high and there has not been much to hang your hat on at this stage. but it may be worth counting from the 1470 high oct 5th as well given it may be the real top,,and that gives mon 19th as 45 days. these 90 cycles do not have to be 90 in one direction, they often split 60 one way and 30 the other, or 45 down and 45 up. so for me, given all the other oversold indicators, if monday showed a big volume panic down day,, and i am still in the trade i would exit.