The ECB jawboning resulted in a pretty large and noticeable $VIX
divergence (SPX new high, VIX very far from new low).
Additionally, some defensive sectors were bid up far outside
their daily upper bollinger bands, while other "risk on" sectors
(gold stocks, silver, small caps) aren't even back at their mid bb
line (20 day MA). My $0.02, if the euro is "fixed", shouldn't
there be a rush out of defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, dividend "Safe
Havens"), and a rush back into the euro itself (which was finished
the session up only 0.3%).
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jul 2012 at 06:55 pm
Absolutely. If it were truly fixed there would have been a
bigger up candle on a lot more volume, and yeah the Euro would be
up a lot more. Still, the fact that this rally is weak (See,
e.g., Jason Haver's comments on the ratio of up to down volume)
won't preclude the market continuing up if it wants to. At
times like this I think of Steve's wise comments about respecting
price action, while remaining cautious when things are overbought.
I will be selling longs, moving stops up, etc., into
strength, moving back into cash.
Posted by frtaylor on 31st of Jul 2012 at 08:58 am
An update on the ratio of up to down volume: last Friday's
ratio showed the most accumulation of stock yet for 2012 (according
to Haver's newest chart), which was contrary to Monday through
Thursday's weak up/down volume ratio. So I was wrong to state
that the volume as of Friday showed weakness. Instead,
Friday's numbers are showing accumulation - strength.
Friday's frenzy
Posted by kalinm on 29th of Jul 2012 at 05:46 pm
The ECB jawboning resulted in a pretty large and noticeable $VIX divergence (SPX new high, VIX very far from new low). Additionally, some defensive sectors were bid up far outside their daily upper bollinger bands, while other "risk on" sectors (gold stocks, silver, small caps) aren't even back at their mid bb line (20 day MA). My $0.02, if the euro is "fixed", shouldn't there be a rush out of defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, dividend "Safe Havens"), and a rush back into the euro itself (which was finished the session up only 0.3%).
Absolutely. If it were truly
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jul 2012 at 06:55 pm
Absolutely. If it were truly fixed there would have been a bigger up candle on a lot more volume, and yeah the Euro would be up a lot more. Still, the fact that this rally is weak (See, e.g., Jason Haver's comments on the ratio of up to down volume) won't preclude the market continuing up if it wants to. At times like this I think of Steve's wise comments about respecting price action, while remaining cautious when things are overbought. I will be selling longs, moving stops up, etc., into strength, moving back into cash.
An update on the ratio
Posted by frtaylor on 31st of Jul 2012 at 08:58 am
An update on the ratio of up to down volume: last Friday's ratio showed the most accumulation of stock yet for 2012 (according to Haver's newest chart), which was contrary to Monday through Thursday's weak up/down volume ratio. So I was wrong to state that the volume as of Friday showed weakness. Instead, Friday's numbers are showing accumulation - strength.
a related chart from Fri
Posted by bkout3 on 31st of Jul 2012 at 09:28 am
a related chart from Fri shows MF moved up but is still lagging price