$SPX - Chart Link - Here's the market scenarios on a daily chart, I've shown them on 30 and 60 min charts and a daily chart.  Personally I put the scenario in green as the least likely, the scenario in black where the market enters a much stronger downtrend or bear market as the 2nd least likely, with my favored scenarios in Blue and Red.  I'd probably give the one in Red with a slight new low made the most probability, it would also server to screw the most # of bears as they would believe the next major bear market is starting.

Personally I think we'll get an OK end of year rally, but it's 2013 when I think the shit will hit the fan.  Long term of course my thoughts have not wavered since 2000.  The market entered a secular bear market in 2000, it's now 12 years into this secular bear.  Secular markets tend to last 16 - 19 years on average, therefore it's too early for this one to be over.  Secular bull markets tend to increase 10 fold or more from start to finish, while secular bear markets tend to end where they began i.e. years and years of up and down.  Secular markets contain cyclical bull and bear markets inside them, 2000 - 2003 cyclical bear, 2003 - 2007 cyclical bull, 2000 - Mar 09 cyclical bear, Mar 09 - Present cyclical bull?  The point is, we should at least have another cyclical bear inside the longer term secular bear since we are only 12 years into this one.

History of secular markets:

2000 - Present - secular bear, in progress

1982 - 2000 - secular bull, 18 years

1966 - 1982 - secular bear, 16 years, stated at 1000 in 1966 - ended at 1000 in 1982, 16 years of nowhere

1948 - 1966 - secular bull, 18 years

1929 - 1948 - secular bear, 19 years

1920 - 1929 - secular bull, the shortest secular market

1905 - 1920 - secular bear