Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 11:57 am
Yes, I remember reading that, and thank you for chiming in this
morning. It's very helpful for me. For me, as a rank
amateur, a major difficulty is dealing with the sheer volume of
data and chart patterns, expert analysis and opinion (and otherwise
- so much out there!), and market action. I am mostly short,
though, as I have been heeding BPT and posts such as yours.
Posted by chartboy on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:31 pm
Here is another item that helped confirm the likely hood of a
reversal this morning. Time balanced out for the head of a
potential inverse H&S pattern just as price was doing the
same.
Obviously if you are a believer in the inverse H&S pattern
this would strongly suggest a relatively balanced right shoulder
should appear as well in the next four days or so.
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:53 pm
Yeah, that's a good confirmation that, so far, the possible inv
H/S is still very viable. But I also have your reversal
window scenario in mind in which we have another leg down (Steve's
deeper inv H/S pattern).
Posted by chartboy on 11th of Jun 2012 at 07:11 pm
First things first..this double top measures to the gap
fill....read how the markets trades with this pattern in sight for
an idea of how strong/weak the market really is in here without any
news.
Posted by chartboy on 12th of Jun 2012 at 07:50 am
No problem...To follow up, here is what I was talking about when
it comes to "reading".
Clearly the market closed in a very weak position last night
with the short term chart indicating a possible target down near
the gap fill if we broke out of the four day range. However,
instead we are seeing a little strength this morning.
That lets me know that the market is becoming a bit more
two sided here. It also tells me, more than likely, yesterdays late
day push down was more about taking out the stops below the last
swing low from a few days ago. Finally, the
continued weakness of US bonds, (strength in
TBT), also indicates that, for the time being, fear has subsided
quite a bit since last week.
Barring any fast unforeseen changes all of these items lend
credence to the idea that we are trying to form a right shoulder in
the potential inverse H&S pattern via a higher divergent low in
the next week or so.
Taking it one step further, one thing to always keep in mind in
a potential bear market...inverse H&S shoulder patterns often
form in bear markets. Then, they either break out and reverse
quickly or fail all together. Point being, the play book that would
frustrate the most people here would be to see a higher low form
here as the right shoulder, then the inverse H&S would set up
and potentially even break out..but instead of leading to a large
move higher...it simply serves as a bull trap.
Yes, I remember reading that,
5 min SPX
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 11:57 am
Yes, I remember reading that, and thank you for chiming in this morning. It's very helpful for me. For me, as a rank amateur, a major difficulty is dealing with the sheer volume of data and chart patterns, expert analysis and opinion (and otherwise - so much out there!), and market action. I am mostly short, though, as I have been heeding BPT and posts such as yours.
Here is another item that helped....
Posted by chartboy on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:31 pm
Here is another item that helped confirm the likely hood of a reversal this morning. Time balanced out for the head of a potential inverse H&S pattern just as price was doing the same.
Obviously if you are a believer in the inverse H&S pattern this would strongly suggest a relatively balanced right shoulder should appear as well in the next four days or so.
Yeah, that's a good confirmation
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:53 pm
Yeah, that's a good confirmation that, so far, the possible inv H/S is still very viable. But I also have your reversal window scenario in mind in which we have another leg down (Steve's deeper inv H/S pattern).
First things first..this double top
Posted by chartboy on 11th of Jun 2012 at 07:11 pm
First things first..this double top measures to the gap fill....read how the markets trades with this pattern in sight for an idea of how strong/weak the market really is in here without any news.
thanks CB.
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of Jun 2012 at 11:26 pm
thanks CB.
No problem...To follow up, here
Posted by chartboy on 12th of Jun 2012 at 07:50 am
No problem...To follow up, here is what I was talking about when it comes to "reading".
Clearly the market closed in a very weak position last night with the short term chart indicating a possible target down near the gap fill if we broke out of the four day range. However, instead we are seeing a little strength this morning. That lets me know that the market is becoming a bit more two sided here. It also tells me, more than likely, yesterdays late day push down was more about taking out the stops below the last swing low from a few days ago. Finally, the continued weakness of US bonds, (strength in TBT), also indicates that, for the time being, fear has subsided quite a bit since last week.
Barring any fast unforeseen changes all of these items lend credence to the idea that we are trying to form a right shoulder in the potential inverse H&S pattern via a higher divergent low in the next week or so.
Taking it one step further, one thing to always keep in mind in a potential bear market...inverse H&S shoulder patterns often form in bear markets. Then, they either break out and reverse quickly or fail all together. Point being, the play book that would frustrate the most people here would be to see a higher low form here as the right shoulder, then the inverse H&S would set up and potentially even break out..but instead of leading to a large move higher...it simply serves as a bull trap.
Just one series of possibilities to watch.
Does your time cycle work argue for a high on the opening gap?
Posted by lessarda on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:41 pm
Yes...however, given all of the
Posted by chartboy on 11th of Jun 2012 at 04:47 pm
Yes...however, given all of the outside influences recently anything can happen from here.